A multigroup model for HIV transmission in the sex working community of Kibera
Date
2012-08-31
Authors
Wilson, John
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Abstract
The informal settlement of Kibera in Nairobi has a significantly higher prevalence
of HIV than the Kenyan average. Sex workers and their male clients from Kibera
were recently surveyed; their responses indicate a population that is well mixed with
large variance in individual number of sexual contacts. Hence, a multigroup two-sex
model is created to study HIV spread in the sex working population of Kibera. This
model is parameterized to the Kibera data, and the e ffects of various parameters
on the prevalence of HIV and the risk of infection to individuals are studied by an
elasticity analysis. The probability of infection from males to females per sexual act
has the greatest implications for HIV control. A simplified model is presented and a
theoretical analysis gives the reproduction number and proves global stability of the
endemic equilibrium.
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Keywords
Epidemiology, HIV, Sex work, Ordinary differntial equations, Disease modelling