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System dynamics model of cervical cancer vaccination and screening interventions in Kenya

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dc.contributor.author Kivuti-Bitok, Lucy W
dc.contributor.author McDonnell, Geoff
dc.contributor.author Abdul, Roudsari
dc.contributor.author Pokhariyal, Ganesh P
dc.date.accessioned 2016-05-03T23:21:08Z
dc.date.available 2016-05-03T23:21:08Z
dc.date.copyright 2014 en_US
dc.date.issued 2014-11
dc.identifier.citation Kivuti-Bitok, L.W., McDonnell, G., Abdul, R. & Pokhariyal, G.P. (2014). System dynamics model of cervical cancer vaccination and screening interventions in Kenya. Cost Effectiveness and Resource Allocation, 12(26), 1-19. en_US
dc.identifier.uri http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1478-7547-12-26
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/1828/7273
dc.description.abstract Objectives: This paper presents a simulation model for evaluating the possible effects of a screening and vaccination campaign against Human Papillomavirus [HPV] in Kenya. Method: A System Dynamics model was developed using the iThink™ computer simulation package. The model was based on data extracted from epidemiological, demographic and published research and where data was not available, expert opinion was sought. The deterministic model stratified the population by vaccination status, screening status and HPV infection status. The model was simulated to estimate outputs for the next 50 years from 2011. Cost Utility indicators of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) and cost per averted DALY were used for economic evaluation. Results: The model predicted that catch up vaccination had the greatest impact in reducing the prevalence of cervical cancer. This was followed by Primary vaccination, with early detection through Screening having the lowest impact of the three choices of interventions in respect of averted cases of cervical cancer and DALY estimates. Conclusion: Kenya as a country should consider adoption of secondary /catch up vaccination as an immediate measure to curb cervical cancer followed by primary vaccination of pre-adolescent girls. Screening should be a complementary measure(s). This model provides a policy decision support vehicle that can allow for choice between different interventions based on their expected outcomes. It also allows modification to accommodate new research results and information to assess the clinical impact of different policies and interventions in cervical cancer management in Kenya. en_US
dc.description.sponsorship We acknowledge The National Council of Science and Technology (NCST) Kenya for funding this research. Stephen Hughes for reviewing and editing the Manuscript as a Native English Speaker. en_US
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.publisher Cost Effectiveness and Resource Allocation en_US
dc.rights Attribution 2.5 Canada *
dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ca/ *
dc.subject Dynamic en_US
dc.subject Simulation en_US
dc.subject Cervical en_US
dc.subject Cancer en_US
dc.subject Kenya en_US
dc.title System dynamics model of cervical cancer vaccination and screening interventions in Kenya en_US
dc.type Article en_US
dc.description.scholarlevel Faculty en_US
dc.description.reviewstatus Reviewed en_US


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