Ecological macroeconomic assessment of meeting a carbon budget without negative emissions
Date
2022
Authors
Sers, Martin R.
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Global Sustainability
Abstract
Non-technical summary. This paper expands the range of scenarios usually explored in
integrated assessment models by exploring unconventional economic scenarios (steady-state
and degrowth) and assuming no use of negative emissions. It is shown, using a mathematical
model of climate and economy, that keeping cumulative emissions within the 1.5 degree
carbon budget is possible under all growth assumptions, assuming a rapid electrification of
end use and an immediate upscaling of renewable energy investments. Under business-as-usual
investment assumptions no economic trajectory corresponds with emissions reductions
consistent with the 1.5 degree carbon budget.
Technical summary. This paper presents a stock-flow consistent input–output integrated
assessment model designed to explore the dual dynamics of transitioning to renewable energy
while electrifying end use subject a carbon budget constraint. Unlike the majority of conventional
integrated assessment model analyses, this paper does not assume the deployment of
carbon dioxide removal and examines the role that alternative economic pathways (steadystates
and degrowth) may play in achieving 1.5°C consistent emissions pathways. The
model is internally calibrated based on a life-cycle energy return on investment scheme
and the energy transition dynamics are captured via a dynamic input–output formulation.
Renewable energy investment as a fraction of gross domestic product for successful emissions
pathways reaches 5%. In terms of new capital requirements and investments, degrowth trajectories
impose lower transition requirements than steady-state and growth trajectories.
Social media summary. We explore the role that steady-state and degrowth economic trajectories
may play in emissions reductions consistent with a 1.5 degree world..
Description
Keywords
climate change, economics, energy
Citation
Sers, M. R. (2022). “Ecological macroeconomic assessment of meeting a carbon budget without negative emissions.” Global Sustainability, 5(e6), 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2022.2