Flexibility assessment of Canada’s electricity system for deep decarbonization

Abstract

In accordance with the Paris Climate Agreement, Canada has committed to reaching net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050, necessitating decarbonization across various sectors, including the electrical grid. The widespread deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) sources holds the potential for a carbon-free electrical grid. However, the variable nature of VRE can result in technical challenges such as network frequency fluctuations, requiring a highly flexible power network to address these issues. Both the demand side and generation side can contribute to network flexibility. Generation-side flexibility can be provided by high ramping generators, such as hydro units, while demand response programs can incentivize customers to adjust their consumption patterns, offering demand-side flexibility. This PhD dissertation seeks to investigate the decarbonization of Canada's electricity system through VRE integration, with a focus on flexibility assessment on both the generation and demand sides. The investigation of VRE integration in this study centers on employing the operation (optimal dispatch) model. The present study undertakes an examination of Canada's existing electrical system with a view to exploring its capability for the integration of VRE. The study commences by evaluating the generation-side flexibility and transmission network adequacy of the system. Thereafter, it examines two strategies aimed at enhancing the integration of VRE. The first strategy considers integrated operation of neighboring networks to leverage flexibility and enhance VRE integration in less flexible networks. The second strategy assesses the impact of demand-side flexibility in enhancing VRE integration. The findings demonstrate that Canada's hydro-dominated electrical network possesses significant potential for integrating VRE, which leads to a significant reduction in GHG emissions. Nonetheless, the current potential falls short of achieving net zero emissions, implying the need for further actions to reach this goal. The integration of neighboring electrical networks through integrated operation can enhance flexibility and VRE integration in networks that are less flexible. However, high flexible networks in Canada, dominated by hydropower, may have their flexibility provision capacity impacted by climate change. This implies that a range of flexibility resources must be taken into consideration to ensure secure and reliable VRE integration. Demand side flexibility can aid in facilitating VRE integration, however, its efficacy is contingent on consumer behavior and preferences, as well as incentives offered by the system operator. Additionally, the findings indicate that the transmission network holds a crucial role in achieving maximum flexibility on both the generation and demand sides. An inadequate transmission capacity can serve as a hindrance to achieving maximum VRE integration.