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Estimating the historic probability of stand-replacement fire using the age-class distribution of undisturbed forest

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dc.contributor.author Reed, William J.
dc.date.accessioned 2009-09-02T00:27:38Z
dc.date.available 2009-09-02T00:27:38Z
dc.date.copyright 1993 en
dc.date.issued 2009-09-02T00:27:38Z
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/1828/1712
dc.description Originally DMS-509-IR (May '89) en
dc.description.abstract A simple probabilistic model for the destruction of forest stands by fire is used to determine a likelihood function for the problem of estimating the per-annum probability of stand-replacement fire using data in the form of areas in various age classes of undisturbed old-growth forest. This enables the estimation of either an age-independent fire probability or of the parameters of a parametrically defined age-dependent probability. The model includes contagion effects (the probability of a stand burning being increased by other stands burning). Maximum likelihood is used to obtain estimates of the age-independent per annum probability of stand-replacement fire (or the parameters of an age-dependent model), along with a contagion parameter. Confidence intervals for the fire probability are also obtained. en
dc.description.sponsorship NSERC Grant A7252 en
dc.language.iso en en
dc.relation.ispartofseries DMS-634-IR en
dc.subject stand replacement fire en
dc.subject even-aged stands en
dc.subject maximum likelihood en
dc.subject contagion en
dc.subject Polya's Urn Scheme en
dc.subject Dirichlet distribution en
dc.title Estimating the historic probability of stand-replacement fire using the age-class distribution of undisturbed forest en
dc.type Technical Report en


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