Topics in Forest Product Modelling: The Economics of Bioenergy Product Exports from Forests
Date
2014-11-06
Authors
Johnston, Craig M. T.
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Abstract
As many countries turn to biomass for energy production to combat climate change, the effects on the global forest products industry remains for the most part, unknown. Although the individual studies of this thesis stand on their own, the results share a common theme of examining economic issues surrounding a greater reliance on energy derived from forests.
Chapter 1 presents the development and application of a non-linear programming model of global forest product trade used to assess the economic impact of an increase in global bioenergy demand. The results of the study indicate that increased global bioenergy demand will result in increased production of lumber and plywood, but outputs for fibreboard, particleboard and pulp will decline. In addition, renewable energy policies promoting bioenergy cause wood pellet prices to rise which could undermine the effectiveness of such policies.
The European Union (EU) has implemented the most aggressive renewable energy policies in the world, and as a result, has quickly become a global leader in bioenergy production. To meet their targets, the EU is expected to import an unprecedented amount of fibre from timber rich regions, causing ripple effects throughout the global forest products industry. Chapter 2 discusses such EU policies, utilizing the developed global forest products trade model. Results indicate increased EU bioenergy demand is welfare enhancing to the global forest products industry as a whole, although there are winners and losers.
Chapter 3 presents another important issue regarding increased bioenergy demand, that is, the supply of fibre is a limiting factor for its viability as an energy source. The chapter discusses the development and application of an electrical grid model of Alberta that is linked to a fibre transportation model of Alberta and British Columbia. Results show that proximity to a wood pellet producer is critical in the economic viability of retrofitting coal-fired power plants to co-fire with biomass.
Finally, the increasing reliance on bioenergy as a fossil fuel substitute depends critically on the acceptance that CO2 release associated with combustion is offset by the re-growth of the forest. Chapter 4 provides a discussion of this issue, sighting the significance of the timeline in CO2 release and absorption. If we deem climate change an urgent matter, we may give more weight to current reductions in atmospheric CO2, eroding the carbon neutrality of biomass.
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Keywords
Forestry, Trade, Climate Change, Computational Modelling, Climatic changes