Next-generation matrices for marine metapopulations: The case of sea lice on salmon farms

dc.contributor.authorHarrington, Peter D.
dc.contributor.authorCantrell, Danielle L.
dc.contributor.authorLewis, Mark A.
dc.date.accessioned2023-07-04T18:48:19Z
dc.date.available2023-07-04T18:48:19Z
dc.date.copyright2023en_US
dc.date.issued2023
dc.description.abstractClassifying habitat patches as sources or sinks and determining metapopulation persistence requires coupling connectivity between habitat patches with local demographic rates. While methods to calculate sources, sinks, and metapopulation persistence exist for discrete-time models, there is no method that is consistent across modeling frameworks. In this paper, we show how next-generation matrices, originally popularized in epidemiology to calculate new infections after one generation, can be used in an ecological context to calculate sources and sinks as well as metapopulation persistence in marine metapopulations. To demonstrate the utility of the method, we construct a next-generation matrix for a network of sea lice populations on salmon farms in the Broughton Archipelago, BC, an intensive salmon farming region on the west coast of Canada where certain salmon farms are currently being removed under an agreement between local First Nations and the provincial government. The column sums of the next-generation matrix can determine if a habitat patch is a source or a sink and the spectral radius of the next-generation matrix can determine the persistence of the metapopulation. With respect to salmon farms in the Broughton Archipelago, we identify the salmon farms which are acting as the largest sources of sea lice and show that in this region the most productive sea lice populations are also the most connected. The farms which are the largest sources of sea lice have not yet been removed from the Broughton Archipelago, and warming temperatures could lead to increased sea louse growth. Calculating sources, sinks, and persistence in marine metapopulations using the next-generation matrix is biologically intuitive, mathematically equivalent to previous methods, and consistent across different modeling frameworks.en_US
dc.description.reviewstatusRevieweden_US
dc.description.scholarlevelFacultyen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipAlberta Graduate Excellence Scholarship, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canadaen_US
dc.identifier.citationHarrington, P. D., Cantrell, D. L., & Lewis, M. A. (2023). Next-generation matrices for marine metapopulations: The case of sea lice on salmon farms. Ecology and Evolution, 13, e10027. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.10027en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.10027
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1828/15194
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherEcology and Evolutionen_US
dc.subjectmarine systemsen_US
dc.subjectmetapopulationen_US
dc.subjectnext-generation matrixen_US
dc.subjectsalmon farmsen_US
dc.subjectsea liceen_US
dc.subjectsource-sink dynamicsen_US
dc.titleNext-generation matrices for marine metapopulations: The case of sea lice on salmon farmsen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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