Guitouni, AdelKhorshidvand, BehroozGilani Larimi, NiloofarBoukhtout, AbdeslemQasrawi, Yazan2026-03-122026-03-122025Guitouni, A., Khorshidvand, B., Larimi, N. G., Boukhtouta, A., & Qasrawi, Y. (2025). Supply chain serviceability under climate change with application in the Arctic. Transportation Research Part D Transport and Environment, 139, 104591. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2025.104591https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2025.104591https://hdl.handle.net/1828/23492This study evaluates the resilience of Arctic supply chains to climate change by introducing the concept of supply chain serviceability. We define serviceability as a function of vulnerabilities in transportation nodes and modes under disruption threats, focusing on climate change impacts. Using climate data from Northern Canada, we assess serviceability under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): SSP1-2.6 (low emissions), SSP2-4.5 (moderate emissions), and SSP5-8.5 (high emissions). We use Monte Carlo simulations to predict climate-induced impacts on six airports and three aircraft types. The detailed analysis of Yellowknife and Iqaluit airports and military aircraft validates our methodology. We include the results for additional airports and aircraft types in the e-companion. Our findings indicate average serviceability index declines of up to 51 permafrost degradation, extreme weather events, and infrastructure vulnerabilities. Our study provides actionable managerial insights and theoretical contributions to support supply chain resilience initiatives.enCC BYsupply chainserviceabilityvulnerabilityclimate changeshared socioeconomic pathwaysArticlePeter B. Gustavson School of Business