Butchart, NealAnstey, James A.Kawatani, YoshioOsprey, Scott M.Richter, Jadwiga H.Wu, Tongwen2024-02-082024-02-0820202020Butchart, N., Anstey, J., Kawatani, Y., Osprey, S., Richter, J. H., & Wu, T. (2020). QBO changes in CMIP6 climate projections. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(7). https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl086903https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086903http://hdl.handle.net/1828/15971Phase 6 of the Coupled-Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is the first in which a significant number of models include a well-resolved stratosphere. Changes in equatorial stratospheric variability in historical and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenario simulations are investigated in 10 models with realistic quasi-biennial oscillations (QBO). All project a weakening of the QBO throughout the stratosphere for SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios and for 1960 to 2010. The weakening is strongest in the lower stratosphere, ranging from 5.8 ± 0.5% to 4.3 ± 0.5% to 2.0 ± 0.5% per decade at 50 hPa for SSP585, SSP370, and historical simulations, respectively. At 20 hPa a weakening of both westward and eastward phases contributes though the weakening eastward phase is only seen in 7 of the 10 models. Similar robust weakening occurs for the temperature QBO, but only from 30 hPa upward. In both scenarios the QBO period decreases in 7 of the 10 models.enCanadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma)Article