UVicSpace : Browsing by Author "Goldblatt, Colin"

Browsing by Author "Goldblatt, Colin"

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A 1D microphysical cloud model for Earth, and Earth-like exoplanets Liquid water and water ice clouds in the convective troposphere
(Elsevier, 2013) Zsom, Andras; Kaltnegger, Lisa; Goldblatt, Colin
One significant difference between the atmospheres of stars and exoplanets is the presence of condensed particles (clouds or hazes) in the atmosphere of the latter. In current 1D models clouds and hazes are treated in an approximate way by raising the surface albedo, or adopting measured Earth cloud properties. The former method introduces errors to the modeled spectra of the exoplanet, as clouds shield the lower atmosphere and thus modify the spectral features. The latter method works only for an exact Earth-analog, but it is challenging to extend to other planets. The main goal of this paper is to develop a self-consistent microphysical cloud model for 1D atmospheric codes, which can reproduce some observed properties of Earth, such as the average albedo, surface temperature, and global energy budget. The cloud model is designed to be computationally efficient, simple to implement, and applicable for a wide range of atmospheric parameters for planets in the habitable zone. We use a 1D, cloud-free, radiative-convective, and photochemical equilibrium code originally developed by Kasting, Pavlov, Segura, and collaborators as basis for our cloudy atmosphere model. The cloud model is based on models used by the meteorology community for Earth’s clouds. The free parameters of the model are the relative humidity and number density of condensation nuclei, and the precipitation efficiency. In a 1D model, the cloud coverage cannot be self-consistently determined, thus we treat it as a free parameter. We apply this model to Earth (aerosol number density 100 cm−3, relative humidity 77 %, liquid cloud fraction 40%, and ice cloud fraction 25%) and find that a precipitation efficiency of 0.8 is needed to reproduce the albedo, average surface temperature and global energy budget of Earth. We perform simulations to determine how the albedo and the climate of a planet is influenced by the free parameters of the cloud model. We find that the planetary climate is most sensitive to changes in the liquid water cloud fraction and precipitation efficiency. The advantage of our cloud model is that the cloud height and the droplet sizes are self-consistently calculated, both of which influence the climate and albedo of exoplanets.
Climate variability leads to multiple oxygenation episodes across the Great Oxidation Event
(Geophysical Research Letters, 2024) Ruiz, Daniel Garduno; Goldblatt, Colin; Ahm, Anne-Sofie C.
The temporal relationship between global glaciations and the Great Oxidation Event (GOE) suggests that climate change played an important role in Earth's oxygenation. The potential role of temperature is captured by the stratigraphic proximity between glacial deposits and sediments containing mass-independent fractionation of sulfur isotopes (MIF-S). We use a time-dependent one-dimensional photochemical model to investigate whether temperature changes associated with global glaciations can drive oscillations in atmospheric O2 levels and MIF-S production across the GOE. We find that extreme climate change can cause atmospheric O2 to oscillate between pre (<10−6 times the present atmospheric level, PAL) and post-GOE (>10−5 PAL) levels. Post-glacial hot-moist greenhouse climates lead to post-GOE O2 levels because the abundant H2O vapor and oxidizing radicals drive the depletion of reduced species. This pattern is generally consistent with the MIF-S signal observed in the sedimentary record, suggesting a link between global glaciations and O2 oscillations across the GOE.
Clouds and the Faint Young Sun Paradox
(European Geoscience Union, 2011-03-04) Goldblatt, Colin; Zahnle, K.J.
We investigate the role which clouds could play in resolving the Faint Young Sun Paradox (FYSP). Lower solar luminosity in the past means that less energy was absorbed on Earth (a forcing of −50 W m−2 during the late Archean), but geological evidence points to the Earth having been at least as warm as it is today, with only very occasional glaciations. We perform radiative calculations on a single global mean atmospheric column. We select a nominal set of three layered, randomly overlapping clouds, which are both consistent with observed cloud climatologies and reproduced the observed global mean energy budget of Earth. By varying the fraction, thickness, height and particle size of these clouds we conduct a wide exploration of how changed clouds could affect climate, thus constraining how clouds could contribute to resolving the FYSP. Low clouds reflect sunlight but have little greenhouse effect. Removing them entirely gives a forcing of +25 W m−2 whilst more modest reduction in their efficacy gives a forcing of +10 to +15 W m−2. For high clouds, the greenhouse effect dominates. It is possible to generate +50 W m−2 forcing from enhancing these, but this requires making them 3.5 times thicker and 14 K colder than the standard high cloud in our nominal set and expanding their coverage to 100% of the sky. Such changes are not credible. More plausible changes would generate no more than +15 W m−2 forcing. Thus neither fewer low clouds nor more high clouds can provide enough forcing to resolve the FYSP. Decreased surface albedo can contribute no more than +5 W m−2 forcing. Some models which have been applied to the FYSP do not include clouds at all. These overestimate the forcing due to increased CO2 by 20 to 25% when pCO2 is 0.01 to 0.1 bar.
Diminished greenhouse warming from Archean methane due to solar absorption lines
(Copernicus Publications, 2015-03-27) Byrne, B.; Goldblatt, Colin
Previous research has shown that methane may have been sustained at high concentrations in the Archean atmosphere, helping to offset lower insolation and solve the faint young sun problem. However, recent updates to the HITRAN (High-Resolution Transmission) line database have significantly increased the shortwave absorption by CH4 in comparison to older versions of the database (e.g. HITRAN 2000). Here we investigate the climatological implications of strong shortwave CH4 absorption in an Archean atmosphererich in CH4. We show that the surface warming at CH4 abundances > 10-3 is diminished relative to the HITRAN 2000 line data. Strong shortwave absorption also results in a warm stratosphere and lower tropopause. We discuss these results in the context of contemporary research on the Archean climate and how these results could affect the formation of stratospheric clouds and an organic haze.
Effects of ozone levels on climate through Earth history
(Climate of the Past, 2023) Deitrick, Russell; Goldblatt, Colin
Molecular oxygen in our atmosphere has increased from less than a part per million in the Archean Eon to a fraction of a percent in the Proterozoic and finally to modern levels during the Phanerozoic. The ozone layer formed with the early Proterozoic oxygenation. While oxygen itself has only minor radiative and climatic effects, the accompanying ozone has important consequences for Earth climate. Using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), a 3-D general circulation model (GCM), we test the effects of various levels of ozone on Earth's climate. When CO2 is held constant, the global-mean surface temperature decreases with decreasing ozone, with a maximum drop of ∼3.5 K at near total ozone removal. By supplementing our GCM results with 1-D radiative flux calculations, we are able to test which changes to the atmosphere are responsible for this temperature change. We find that the surface temperature change is caused mostly by the stratosphere being much colder when ozone is absent; this makes it drier, substantially weakening the greenhouse effect. We also examine the effect of the structure of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere on the formation of clouds and on the global circulation. At low ozone, both high and low clouds become more abundant due to changes in the tropospheric stability. These generate opposing shortwave and longwave radiative forcings that are nearly equal. The Hadley circulation and tropospheric jet streams are strengthened, while the stratospheric polar jets are weakened, the latter being a direct consequence of the change in stratospheric temperatures. This work identifies the major climatic impacts of ozone, an important piece of the evolution of Earth's atmosphere.
The Eons of Chaos and Hades
(Copernicus Publications, 2010-02-02) Goldblatt, Colin; Zahnle, K.J.; Sleep, N.H.; Nisbet, E.G.
We propose the Chaotian Eon to demarcate geologic time from the origin of the Solar System to the Moon-forming impact on Earth. This separates the solar system wide processes of planet formation from the subsequent divergent evolution of the inner planets. We further propose the division of the Hadean Eon into eras and periods and naming the proto-Earth Tellus.
EONS: A new biogeochemical model of Earth's oxygen, carbon, phosphorus, and nitrogen systems from the Archean to the present
(Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 2024) Horne, Julia; Goldblatt, Colin
We present Earth's Oxygenation and Natural Systematics (EONS): a new, fully coupled biogeochemical model of the atmosphere, ocean, and their interactions with the geosphere, which can reproduce major features of Earth's evolution following the origin of life to the present day. The model, consisting of 257 unique fluxes between 96 unique chemical reservoirs, includes an interactive biosphere, cycles of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, and oxygen, and climate. A nominal model run initialized in the Eoarchean resolves emergent surface oxygenation, nutrient limitations, and climate feedbacks. The modeled atmosphere oxygenates in stepwise fashion over the course of the Proterozoic; a nearly billion year lag after the evolution of photosynthesis at 3.5 Ga is followed by a great oxidation event at 2.4 Ga, which appears to be caused by the gradual buildup of organic matter on the continents imposing nutrient limitation on the biosphere by removing key nutrients from the ocean system. The simple climate system shows significant temperature shifts punctuate the oxygenation process, implying that major biological transitions possibly destabilized Earth's climate. This work demonstrates that forward modeling the entirety of Earth's history with relatively few imposed boundary forcings is feasible, that the Earth system is not at steady state, and that our understanding of coupled C-N-P-O cycling as it functions today can explain much of the Earth's evolution.
Habitability of Waterworlds: Runaway Greenhouses, Atmospheric Expansion, and Multiple Climate States of Pure Water Atmospheres
(Mary Ann Liebert, Incorporated, 2015-05-15) Goldblatt, Colin
There are four different stable climate states for pure water atmospheres, as might exist on so-called "waterworlds". I map these as a function of solar constant for planets ranging in size from Mars size to 10 Earth-mass.
Low simulated radiation limit for runaway greenhouse climates
(Nature Geoscience, 2013-08) Goldblatt, Colin; Robinson, Tyler D.; Zahnle, Kevin J.; Crisp, David
The atmospheres of terrestrial planets are expected to be in long-term radiation balance: an increase in the absorption of solar radiation warms the surface and troposphere, which leads to a matching increase in the emission of thermal radiation. Warming a wet planet such as Earth would make the atmosphere moist and optically thick such that only thermal radiation emitted from the upper troposphere can escape to space. Hence, for a hot moist atmosphere, there is an upper limit on the thermal emission that is unrelated to surface temperature. If the solar radiation absorbed exceeds this limit, the planet will heat uncontrollably and the entire ocean will evaporate—the so-called runaway greenhouse. Here we model the solar and thermal radiative transfer in incipient and complete runaway greenhouse atmospheres at line-by-line spectral resolution using a modern spectral database. We find a thermal radiation limit of 282 W m−2 (lower than previously reported) and that 294 W m−2 of solar radiation is absorbed (higher than previously reported). Therefore, a steam atmosphere induced by such a runaway greenhouse may be a stable state for a planet receiving a similar amount of solar radiation as Earth today. Avoiding a runaway greenhouse on Earth requires that the atmosphere is subsaturated with water, and that the albedo effect of clouds exceeds their greenhouse effect. A runaway greenhouse could in theory be triggered by increased greenhouse forcing, but anthropogenic emissions are probably insufficient.
Marine oxygen production and open water supported an active nitrogen cycle during the Marinoan Snowball Earth
(Nature Communications, 2017) Johnson, Benjamin W.; Poulton, Simon W.; Goldblatt, Colin
The Neoproterozoic Earth was punctuated by two low-latitude Snowball Earth glaciations. Models permit oceans with either total ice cover or substantial areas of open water. Total ice cover would make an anoxic ocean likely, and would be a formidable barrier to biologic survival. However, there are no direct data constraining either the redox state of the ocean or marine biological productivity during the glacials. Here we present iron-speciation, redox-sensitive trace element, and nitrogen isotope data from a Neoproterozoic (Marinoan) glacial episode. Iron-speciation indicates deeper waters were anoxic and Fe-rich, while trace element concentrations indicate surface waters were in contact with an oxygenated atmosphere. Furthermore, synglacial sedimentary nitrogen is isotopically heavier than the modern atmosphere, requiring a biologic cycle with nitrogen fixation, nitrification and denitrification. Our results indicate significant regions of open marine water and active biologic productivity throughout one of the harshest glaciations in Earth history.
Measurement of geologic nitrogen using mass spectrometry, colorimetry, and a newly adapted fluorometry technique
(Solid Earth, 2017) Johnson, Benjamin W.; Drage, Natashia; Spence, Jody; Hanson, Nova; El-Sabaawi, Rana; Goldblatt, Colin
Long viewed as a mostly noble, atmospheric species, recent work demonstrates that nitrogen in fact cycles throughout the Earth system, including the atmosphere, biosphere, oceans, and solid Earth. Despite this new-found behaviour, more thorough investigation of N in geologic materials is limited due to its low concentration (one to tens of parts per million) and difficulty in analysis. In addition, N can exist in multiple species (NO3-, NH4+, N-2, organic N), and determining which species is actually quantified can be difficult. In rocks and minerals, NH4+ is the most stable form of N over geologic timescales. As such, techniques designed to measure NII4+ can be particularly useful. We measured a number of geochemical rock standards using three different techniques: elemental analyzer (EA) mass spectrometry, colorimetry, and fluorometry. The fluorometry approach is a novel adaptation of a technique commonly used in biologic science, applied herein to geologic NH4+. Briefly, NH4+ can be quantified by HF dissolution, neutralization, addition of a fluorescing reagent, and analysis on a standard fluorometer. We reproduce published values for several rock standards (BCR-2, BHVO-2, and G-2), especially if an additional distillation step is performed. While it is difficult to assess the quality of each method, due to lack of international geologic N standards, fluorometry appears better suited to analyzing mineral- bound NH4+ than EA mass spectrometry and is a simpler, quicker alternative to colorimetry. To demonstrate a potential application of fluorometry, we calculated a continental crust N budget based on new measurements. We used glacial tills as a proxy for upper crust and analyzed several poorly constrained rock types (volcanics, mid- crustal xenoliths) to determine that the continental crust contains similar to 2 x 10(18) kg N. This estimate is consistent with recent budget estimates and shows that fluorometry is appropriate for large-scale questions where high sample throughput is helpful. Lastly, we report the first f N-15 values of six rock standards: BCR-2 (1 : 05 +/- 0 : 4%), BHVO-2 (0 : 3 +/- 0 : 2%), G2 (1 : 23 +/- 1 : 32%), LKSD-4 (3 : 59 +/- 0 : 1%), Till-4 (6 : 33 +/- 0 : 1%), and SY-4 (2 : 13 +/- 0 : 5%). The need for international geologic N standards is crucial for further investigation of the Earth system N cycle, and we suggest that existing rock standards may be suited to this need.
The Nitrogen Budget of Earth
(Elsevier, 2015-05-15) Johnson, Ben; Goldblatt, Colin
We comprehensively compile and review N content in geologic materials to calculate a new N budget for Earth. Using analyses of rocks and minerals in conjunction with N-Ar geochemistry demonstrates that the Bulk Silicate Earth (BSE) contains \sim7\pm4 times present atmospheric N (4\times10^18 kg N, PAN), with 27\pm16\times10^18 kg N. Comparison to chondritic composition, after subtracting N sequestered into the core, yields a consistent result, with BSE N between 17\pm13\times10^18 kg to 31\pm24\times10^18 kg N. In the chondritic comparison we calculate a N mass in Earth's core (180\pm110 to 300\pm180\times10^18 kg) and discuss the Moon as a proxy for the early mantle. Significantly, we find the majority of the planetary budget of N is in the solid Earth. The N estimate herein precludes the need for a "missing N" reservoir. Nitrogen-Ar systematics in mantle rocks and basalts identify two mantle reservoirs: MORB-source like (MSL) and high-N. High-N mantle is composed of young, N-rich material subducted from the surface and is identified in OIB and some xenoliths. In contrast, MSL appears to be made of old material, though a component of subducted material is evident in this reservoir as well. Using our new budget, we calculate a {\delta}15N value for BSE plus atmosphere of \sim2\permil. This value should be used when discussing bulk Earth N isotope evolution. Additionally, our work indicates that all surface N could pass through the mantle over Earth history, and the mantle may act as a long-term sink for N. Since N acts as a tracer of exchange between the atmosphere, oceans, and mantle over time, clarifying its distribution in the Earth is critical for evolutionary models concerned with Earth system evolution. We suggest that N be viewed in the same vein as carbon: it has a fast, biologically mediated cycle which connects it to a slow, tectonically-controlled geologic cycle.
The Palaeoclimate and Terrestrial Exoplanet Radiative Transfer Model Intercomparison Project (PALAEOTRIP): Experimental design and protocols
(Geoscientific Model Development, 2017) Goldblatt, Colin; Kavanagh, Lucas; Dewey, Maura
Accurate radiative transfer calculation is fundamental to all climate modelling. For deep palaeoclimate, and increasingly terrestrial exoplanet climate science, this brings both the joy and the challenge of exotic atmospheric compositions. The challenge here is that most standard radiation codes for climate modelling have been developed for modern atmospheric conditions and may perform poorly away from these. The palaeoclimate or exoclimate modeller must either rely on these or use bespoke radiation codes, and in both cases rely on either blind faith or ad hoc testing of the code. In this paper, we describe the protocols for the Palaeoclimate and Terrestrial Exoplanet Radiative Transfer Model Intercomparison Project (PALAEOTRIP) to systematically address this. This will compare as many radiation codes used for palaeoclimate or exoplanets as possible, with the aim of identifying the ranges of far-from-modern atmospheric compositions in which the codes perform well. This paper describes the experimental protocol and invites community participation in the project through 2017–2018.
A Patchy Cloud Model for the L to T Dwarf Transition
(IOP Publishing, 2010-10-14) Marley, Mark S.; Saumon, Didier; Goldblatt, Colin
One mechanism suggested for the L to T dwarf spectral type transition is the appearance of relatively cloud-free regions across the disk of brown dwarfs as they cool. The existence of partly cloudy regions has been supported by evidence for variability in dwarfs in the late L to early T spectral range, but no self-consistent atmosphere models of such partly cloudy objects have yet been constructed. Here, we present a new approach for consistently modeling partly cloudy brown dwarfs and giant planets.We find that even a small fraction of cloud holes dramatically alter the atmospheric thermal profile, spectra, and photometric colors of a given object. With decreasing cloudiness objects briskly become bluer in J − K and brighten in J band, as is observed at the L/T transition. Model spectra of partly cloudy objects are similar to our models with globally homogenous, but thinner, clouds. Hence, spectra alone may not be sufficient to distinguish partial cloudiness although variability and polarization measurements are potential observational signatures. Finally, we note that partial cloud cover may be an alternative explanation for the blue L dwarfs.
Radiative forcing at high concentrations of well-mixed greenhouse gases
(Geophysical Research Letters, 2014-01) Byrne, B.; Goldblatt, Colin
We present new calculations of radiative forcing at very high concentrations of CO2, CH4, and N2O, relevant to extreme anthropogenic climate change and paleoclimate studies. CO2 forcing is calculated over the range 100 ppmv to 50,000 ppmv, and the maximum forcing is 38.1 W m−2. CH4 and N2O forcings are calculated over the range 100 ppbv to 100 ppmv and give maximum forcings of 6.66 W m−2 and 22.3 W m−2. The sensitivity of our calculations to spatial averaging and tropopause definition is examined. We compare our results with the “simplified expressions” reported by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and find significant differences at high greenhouse gas concentrations. We provide new simplified expressions which agree much better with the calculated forcings and suggest that these expressions be used in place of the IPCC expressions. Additionally, we provide meridionally resolved forcings which may be used to force simple and intermediate complexity climate models.
Radiative forcings for 28 potential Archean greenhouse gases
(European Geosciences Union, 2014) Byrne, B.; Goldblatt, Colin
Despite reduced insolation in the late Archean, evidence suggests a warm climate which was likely sustained by a stronger greenhouse effect, the so-called faint young sun problem (FYSP). CO2 and CH4 are generally thought to be the mainstays of this enhanced greenhouse, though many other gases have been proposed. We present high accuracy radiative forcings for CO2, CH4, and 26 other gases, performing the radiative transfer calculations at line-by-line resolution and using HITRAN 2012 line data for background pressures of 0.5, 1, and 2 bar of atmospheric N2. For CO2 to resolve the FYSP alone at 2.8 Gyr BP (80 % of present solar luminosity), 0.32 bar is needed with 0.5 bar of atmospheric N2, 0.20 bar with 1 bar of atmospheric N2, or 0.11 bar with 2 bar of atmospheric N2. For CH4, we find that near-infrared absorption is much stronger than previously thought, arising from updates to the HITRAN database. CH4 radiative forcing peaks at 10.3, 9, or 8.3 W m−2 for background pressures of 0.5, 1, or 2 bar, likely limiting the utility of CH4 for warming the Archean. For the other 26 HITRAN gases, radiative forcings of up to a few to 10 W m−2 are obtained from concentrations of 0.1–1 ppmv for many gases. For the 20 strongest gases, we calculate the reduction in radiative forcing due to overlap. We also tabulate the modern sources, sinks, concentrations, and lifetimes of these gases and summaries the literature on Archean sources and concentrations. We recommend the forcings provided here be used both as a first reference for which gases are likely good greenhouse gases, and as a standard set of calculations for validation of radiative forcing calculations for the Archean.
The runaway greenhouse: implications for future climate change, geoengineering and planetary atmospheres
(Royal Society of London, 2012-08-06) Goldblatt, Colin; Watson, Andrew J.
The ultimate climate emergency is a ‘runaway greenhouse’: a hot and water-vapour-rich atmosphere limits the emission of thermal radiation to space, causing runaway warming. Warming ceases only after the surface reaches approximately 1400 K and emits radiation in the near-infrared, where water is not a good greenhouse gas. This would evaporate the entire ocean and exterminate all planetary life. Venus experienced a runaway greenhouse in the past, and we expect that the Earth will in around 2 billion years as solar luminosity increases. But could we bring on such a catastrophe prematurely, by our current climate-altering activities? Here, we review what is known about the runaway greenhouse to answer this question, describing the various limits on outgoing radiation and how climate will evolve between these. The good news is that almost all lines of evidence lead us to believe that is unlikely to be possible, even in principle, to trigger full a runaway greenhouse by addition of non-condensible greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. However, our understanding of the dynamics, thermodynamics, radiative transfer and cloud physics of hot and steamy atmospheres is weak. We cannot therefore completely rule out the possibility that human actions might cause a transition, if not to full runaway, then at least to a much warmer climate state than the present one. High climate sensitivity might provide a warning. If we, or more likely our remote descendants, are threatened with a runaway greenhouse, then geoengineering to reflect sunlight might be life's only hope. Injecting reflective aerosols into the stratosphere would be too short-lived, and even sunshades in space might require excessive maintenance. In the distant future, modifying Earth's orbit might provide a sustainable solution. The runaway greenhouse also remains relevant in planetary sciences and astrobiology: as extrasolar planets smaller and nearer to their stars are detected, some will be in a runaway greenhouse state.
A secular increase in continental crust nitrogen during the Precambrian
(Geochemical Perspectives Letters, 2017) Johnson, Benjamin W.; Goldblatt, Colin
Recent work indicates the presence of substantial geologic nitrogen reservoirs in the mantle and continental crust. Importantly, this geologic nitrogen has exchanged between the atmosphere and the solid Earth over time. Changes in atmospheric nitrogen (i.e. atmospheric mass) have direct effects on climate and biological productivity. It is difficult to constrain, however, the evolution of the major nitrogen reservoirs through time. Here we show a secular increase in continental crust nitrogen through Earth history recorded in glacial tills (2.9 Ga to modern), which act as a proxy for average upper continental crust composition. Archean and earliest Palaeoproterozoic tills contain 66 ± 100 ppm nitrogen, whereas Neoproterozoic and Phanerozoic tills contain 290 ± 165 ppm nitrogen, whilst the isotopic composition has remained constant at ∼4 ‰. Nitrogen has accumulated in the continental crust through time, likely sequestered from the atmosphere via biological fixation. Our findings support dynamic, non-steady state behaviour of nitrogen through time, and are consistent with net transfer of atmospheric N to geologic reservoirs over time.
Thermal performance of ecosystems: Modeling how physiological responses to temperature scale up in communities
(Journal of Theoretical Biology, 2024) Febvre, Camille; Goldblatt, Colin; El-Sabaawi, Rana
Understanding how ecosystems respond to their environmental temperature is a major challenge. Thermodynamic constraints on species’ metabolic rates are expected to affect ecosystem characteristics, but species interactions and interspecific variation in physiological thermal response curves (TRC) may obscure ecosystem-level responses to temperature. As a result, macroecological patterns related to temperature are still poorly understood. We investigate how physiological TRC scale up to ecosystem-level thermal responses by modifying the Tangled Nature (TaNa) model, a stochastic network model of ecology and evolution. We include new parameterizations that make reproduction, death, and mutation temperature-dependent. We find that ecosystem survival probability depends on how the minimum fitness required for species survival varies with temperature. The thermal response of ecosystem survival probability is the only ecosystem property that is sensitive to interspecific variation in TRC. Species richness scales up directly from the TRC of mutation rate, and average species population sizes are inversely related to mutation rate, with Species Abundance Distributions (SADs) exhibiting more rare species in warmer temperatures. Interactions between species are also inversely related to mutation, with positive interactions occurring more frequently in colder temperatures. The abundance of surviving ecosystems is not sensitive to temperature. This work helps clarify the specific relationships between physiological responses to temperature and ecosystem-level repercussions when species are interacting and adapting to their thermal environments.
Tidal Venuses: Triggering a Climate Catastrophe via Tidal Heating
(Mary Ann Liebert, Incorporated, 2013) Barnes, Rory; Mullins, Kristina; Goldblatt, Colin; Meadows, Victoria S.; Kasting, James F.; Heller, René
Traditionally stellar radiation has been the only heat source considered capable of determining global climate on long timescales. Here we show that terrestrial exoplanets orbiting low-mass stars may be tidally heated at high enough levels to induce a runaway greenhouse for a long enough duration for all the hydrogen to escape. Without hydrogen, the planet no longer has water and cannot support life. We call these planets “Tidal Venuses,” and the phenomenon a “tidal greenhouse.” Tidal effects also circularize the orbit, which decreases tidal heating. Hence, some planets may form with large eccentricity, with its accompanying large tidal heating, and lose their water, but eventually settle into nearly circular orbits (i.e. with negligible tidal heating) in the habitable zone (HZ). However, these planets are not habitable as past tidal heating desiccated them, and hence should not be ranked highly for detailed follow-up observations aimed at detecting biosignatures. We simulate the evolution of hypothetical planetary systems in a quasi-continuous parameter distribution and find that we can constrain the history of the system by statistical arguments. Planets orbiting stars with masses <∼0.3 MSun may be in danger of desiccation via tidal heating. We apply these concepts to Gl 667C c, a ∼ 4.5 MEarth planet orbiting a 0.3 MSun star at 0.12 AU. We find that it probably did not lose its water via tidal heating as orbital stability is unlikely for the high eccentricities required for the tidal greenhouse. As the inner edge of the HZ is defined by the onset of a runaway or moist greenhouse powered by radiation, our results represent a fundamental revision to the HZ for non-circular orbits. In the appendices we review a) the moist and runaway greenhouses, b) hydrogen escape, c) stellar mass-radius and mass-luminosity relations, d) terrestrial planet mass-radius relations, and e) linear tidal theories.

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