A multistate extension of the Jolly-Seber model: combining adult mark-recapture data with juvenile data
Date
2021-10-28
Authors
Halverson-Duncan, Brittany
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Abstract
The Laskeek Bay Conservation Society has been collecting data on the East Limestone Island population of Ancient Murrelets since 1990. For the first 15 years of this decades-long study, mark-recapture data was collected annually on the adult population using one method while chicks were captured and tagged each year soon after their birth using another method. We developed a Jolly-Seber type model that integrates the adult and chick data. Using a multi-state framework, our model separates the `alive' state of the JS model into several age-related states, allowing for different survival and capture parameters between states. In the Ancient Murrelet case study we found that a 6-state model with constant adult survival and capture parameters best fit the data. We determined that, since the detected chicks are rarely seen again, including these individuals in the model does not result in estimates which greatly differ from that of the standard Jolly-Seber model but in a population in which juveniles have high survival and re-capture probabilities, the MSJS model is able to reduce the bias in estimates of population parameters.
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Keywords
Jolly-Seber, multistate model