Global heat stress on health, wildfires, and agricultural crops under different levels of climate warming

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dc.contributor.authorSun, Qiaohong
dc.contributor.authorMiao, Chiyuan
dc.contributor.authorHanel, Martin
dc.contributor.authorBorthwick, Alistair G. L.
dc.contributor.authorDuan, Qingyun
dc.contributor.authorJi, Duoying
dc.contributor.authorLi, Hu
dc.date.accessioned2025-04-10T20:27:32Z
dc.date.available2025-04-10T20:27:32Z
dc.date.issued2019
dc.description.abstractThe effects of heat stress are spatially heterogeneous owing to local variations in climate response, population density, and social conditions. Using global climate and impact models from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project, our analysis shows that the frequency and intensity of heat events increase, especially in tropical regions (geographic perspective) and developing countries (national perspective), even with global warming held to the 1.5°C target. An additional 0.5°C increase to the 2°C warming target leads to >15% of global land area becoming exposed to levels of heat stress that affect human health; almost all countries in Europe will be subject to increased fire danger, with the duration of the fire season lasting 3.3days longer; 106 countries are projected to experience an increase in the wheat production-damage index. Globally, about 38%, 50%, 46%, 36%, and 48% of the increases in exposure to health threats, wildfire, crop heat stress for soybeans, wheat, and maize could be avoided by constraining global warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C. With high emissions, these impacts will continue to intensify over time, extending to almost all countries by the end of the 21st century: >95% of countries will face exposure to health-related heat stress, with India and Brazil ranked highest for integrated heat-stress exposure. The magnitude of the changes in fire season length and wildfire frequency are projected to increase substantially over 74% global land, with particularly strong effects in the United States, Canada, Brazil, China, Australia, and Russia. Our study should help facilitate climate policies that account for international variations in the heat-related threats posed by climate change.
dc.description.reviewstatusReviewed
dc.description.scholarlevelFaculty
dc.description.sponsorshipFunding for this research was provided by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41622101; No. 41877155), the State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities.
dc.identifier.citationSun, Q., Miao, C., Hanel, M., Borthwick, A. G. L., Duan, Q., Ji, D., & Li, H. (2019). Global heat stress on health, wildfires, and agricultural crops under different levels of climate warming. Environment International, 128, 125–136. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2019.04.025
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2019.04.025
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1828/21850
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherEnvironment International
dc.rightsCC BY-NC-ND 4.0
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.subjectUN SDG 13: Climate Action
dc.subjectglobal warming
dc.subjectexposure
dc.subjectheat-related extremes
dc.subject1.5 °C warming target
dc.subject#journal article
dc.subjectPacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC)
dc.titleGlobal heat stress on health, wildfires, and agricultural crops under different levels of climate warming
dc.typeArticle

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