Changes in annual extremes of daily temperature and precipitation in CMIP6 models

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dc.contributor.authorLi, Chao
dc.contributor.authorZwiers, Francis W.
dc.contributor.authorZhang, Xuebin
dc.contributor.authorLi, Guilong
dc.contributor.authorSun, Ying
dc.contributor.authorWehner, Michael
dc.date.accessioned2025-04-10T20:27:25Z
dc.date.available2025-04-10T20:27:25Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.description.abstractThis study presents an analysis of daily temperature and precipitation extremes with return periods ranging from 2 to 50 years in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) multimodel ensemble of simulations. Judged by similarity with reanalyses, the new-generation models simulate the present-day temperature and precipitation extremes reasonably well. In line with previous CMIP simulations, the new simulations continue to project a large-scale picture of more frequent and more intense hot temperature extremes and precipitation extremes and vanishing cold extremes under continued global warming. Changes in temperature extremes outpace changes in global annual mean surface air temperature (GSAT) over most landmasses, while changes in precipitation extremes follow changes in GSAT globally at roughly the Clausius–Clapeyron rate of ~7% °C −1. Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes normalized with respect to GSAT do not depend strongly on the choice of forcing scenario or model climate sensitivity, and do not vary strongly over time, but with notable regional variations. Over the majority of land regions, the projected intensity increases and relative frequency increases tend to be larger for more extreme hot temperature and precipitation events than for weaker events. To obtain robust estimates of these changes at local scales, large initial-condition ensemble simulations are needed. Appropriate spatial pooling of data from neighboring grid cells within individual simulations can, to some extent, reduce the needed ensemble size.
dc.description.reviewstatusReviewed
dc.description.scholarlevelFaculty
dc.description.sponsorshipThis study was supported by the National Key R&D Programs of China (2018YFC1507700). CL was also supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (42075026). MW was supported by the Director, Office of Science, Office of Biological andEnvironmental Research of theU.S.Department of Energy through the Regional and Global Climate Modelling program (DE340AC02-05CH1123).
dc.identifier.citationLi, C., Zwiers, F. W., Zhang, X., Li, G., Sun, Y., & Wehner, M. (2021). Changes in Annual Extremes of Daily Temperature and Precipitation in CMIP6 Models. Journal of Climate, 34(9), 3441–3460. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-1013.1
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-1013.1
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1828/21779
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherJournal of Climate
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.subjectextreme events
dc.subjectprecipitation
dc.subjecttemperature
dc.subjectUN SDG 13: Climate Action
dc.subject#journal article
dc.titleChanges in annual extremes of daily temperature and precipitation in CMIP6 models
dc.typeArticle

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