PCIC science brief: On the loss of CO₂ in the winter observed across the Northern permafrost region
Date
2020-05
Authors
Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC)
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC)
Abstract
As the Arctic warms, the rate at which microbes in Arctic soil digest soil organic matter increases and, with it, the release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere also increases. The amount of carbon released into the atmosphere from permafrost in this region is significant and so it is important to measure it accurately and be able to make credible projections of it.
Publishing in Nature Climate Change, Natali et al. (2019) use observations of CO2 flux from Arctic and Boreal permafrost soil to create a model that allows them to estimate winter (October through the end of April) soil carbon flux over the 2003-2017 period. They also drive their model with global climate model output, to make projections of future CO2 flux in the region. They estimate that approximately 1.7 gigatonnes of carbon (GtC) were released each winter over the 2003-2017 period. The authors also find that, of the variables that they tested, soil temperature had the largest relative influence on CO2 flux. Their projections show future winter Arctic soil fluxes of about 2.0 GtC per year by 2100, for a moderate emissions scenario, and about 2.3 GtC per year, assuming a high-emissions scenario.
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Keywords
UN SDG 13: Climate Action, #science brief, #PCIC publication