Extreme wet and dry conditions affected differently by greenhouse gases and aerosols

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dc.contributor.authorSillmann, Jana
dc.contributor.authorStjern, Camilla W.
dc.contributor.authorMyhre, Gunnar
dc.contributor.authorSamset, Bjørn H.
dc.contributor.authorHodnebrog, Øivind
dc.contributor.authorAndrews, Timothy
dc.contributor.authorBoucher, Olivier
dc.contributor.authorFaluvegi, Gregory
dc.contributor.authorForster, Piers M.
dc.contributor.authorKasoar, Matthew R.
dc.contributor.authorKharin, Viatcheslav V.
dc.contributor.authorKirkevåg, Alf
dc.contributor.authorLamarque, Jean-Francois
dc.contributor.authorOlivié, Dirk J. L.
dc.contributor.authorRichardson, Thomas B.
dc.contributor.authorShindell, Drew
dc.contributor.authorTakemura, Toshihiko
dc.contributor.authorVoulgarakis, Apostolos
dc.contributor.authorZwiers, Francis W.
dc.date.accessioned2025-04-10T20:27:27Z
dc.date.available2025-04-10T20:27:27Z
dc.date.issued2019
dc.description.abstractGlobal warming due to greenhouse gases and atmospheric aerosols alter precipitation rates, but the influence on extreme precipitation by aerosols relative to greenhouse gases is still not well known. Here we use the simulations from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project that enable us to compare changes in mean and extreme precipitation due to greenhouse gases with those due to black carbon and sulfate aerosols, using indicators for dry extremes as well as for moderate and very extreme precipitation. Generally, we find that the more extreme a precipitation event is, the more pronounced is its response relative to global mean surface temperature change, both for aerosol and greenhouse gas changes. Black carbon (BC) stands out with distinct behavior and large differences between individual models. Dry days become more frequent with BC-induced warming compared to greenhouse gases, but so does the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation. An increase in sulfate aerosols cools the surface and thereby the atmosphere, and thus induces a reduction in precipitation with a stronger effect on extreme than on mean precipitation. A better understanding and representation of these processes in models will provide knowledge for developing strategies for both climate change and air pollution mitigation.
dc.description.reviewstatusReviewed
dc.description.scholarlevelFaculty
dc.description.sponsorshipO.B. acknowledges HPC resources from TGCC under the gencmip6 allocation provided by GENCI (Grand Equipement National de Calcul Intensif). J.S., C.W.S., G.M., Ø.H., and B.H.S. are supported by the projects NAPEX (grant no. 229778) and SUPER (grant no. 250573) funded by the Norwegian Research Council. T.A. was supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by BEIS and Defra. A.V. and M.R.K. were supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (grant NE/ K500872/1). T.B.R. was supported by a NERC CASE award NE/K007483/1 in collaboration with the Met Office and NERC grant NE/N006038/1.
dc.identifier.citationSillmann, J., Stjern, C. W., Myhre, G., Samset, B. H., Hodnebrog, Ø., Andrews, T., Boucher, O., Faluvegi, G., Forster, P. M., Kasoar, M. R., Kharin, V. V., Kirkevåg, A., Lamarque, J.-F., Olivié, D. J. L., Richardson, T. B., Shindell, D., Takemura, T., Voulgarakis, A., & Zwiers, F. W. (2019). Extreme wet and dry conditions affected differently by greenhouse gases and aerosols. Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2(1), 24. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-019-0079-3
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-019-0079-3
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1828/21803
dc.language.isoen
dc.publishernpj Climate and Atmospheric Science
dc.rightsCC BY 4.0
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectUN SDG 13: Climate Action
dc.subject#journal article
dc.subjectPacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC)
dc.titleExtreme wet and dry conditions affected differently by greenhouse gases and aerosols
dc.typeArticle

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