Usefulness of ensemble forecasts from NCEP Climate Forecast System in sub‐seasonal to intra‐annual forecasting

Simple item page
dc.contributor.authorKumar, Sanjiv
dc.contributor.authorDirmeyer, Paul A.
dc.contributor.authorKinter, J. L.
dc.date.accessioned2025-04-10T20:27:44Z
dc.date.available2025-04-10T20:27:44Z
dc.date.issued2014
dc.description.abstractTypically, sub‐seasonal to intra‐annual climate forecasts are based on ensemble mean (EM) predictions. The EM prediction provides only a part of the information available from the ensemble forecast. Here we test the null hypothesis that the observations are randomly distributed about the EM predictions using a new metric that quantifies the distance between the EM predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) and the observations represented by CFSv2 Reanalysis. The null hypothesis cannot be rejected in this study. Hence, we argue that the higher order statistics such as ensemble standard deviation are also needed to describe the forecast. We also show that removal of systematic errors that are a function of the forecast initialization month and lead time is a necessary pre‐processing step. Finally, we show that CFSv2 provides useful ensemble climate forecasts from 0 to 9 month lead time in several regions.
dc.description.reviewstatusReviewed
dc.description.scholarlevelFaculty
dc.description.sponsorshipThis study received support from the following grants: NSF 0947837, NSF 0830068, NOAA NA09OAR4310058, and NASA NNX09AN50G.
dc.identifier.citationKumar, S., Dirmeyer, P. A., & Kinter, J. L. (2014). Usefulness of ensemble forecasts from NCEP Climate Forecast System in sub‐seasonal to intra‐annual forecasting. Geophysical Research Letters, 41(10), 3586–3593. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059586
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059586
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1828/21879
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherGeophysical Research Letters
dc.subjectUN SDG 13: Climate Action
dc.subject#journal article
dc.subjectPacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC)
dc.titleUsefulness of ensemble forecasts from NCEP Climate Forecast System in sub‐seasonal to intra‐annual forecasting
dc.typeArticle

Files

Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
kumar_sanjiv_GeophysResLett_2014.pdf
Size:
2.72 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Download

Collections

PCIC Publications
 
University of Victoria Libraries

We acknowledge and respect the Lək̓ʷəŋən (Songhees and Esquimalt) Peoples on whose territory the university stands, and the Lək̓ʷəŋən and W̱SÁNEĆ Peoples whose historical relationships with the land continue to this day.