Estimates of future flow, including extremes, of the Columbia River headwaters

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dc.contributor.authorBürger, Gerd
dc.contributor.authorSchulla, J.
dc.contributor.authorSchoeneberg (Werner), Arelia T.
dc.date.accessioned2025-04-10T20:27:26Z
dc.date.available2025-04-10T20:27:26Z
dc.date.issued2011
dc.description.abstractStreamflow projections, including extremes, for the 2050s for the Columbia River headwaters above Donald are obtained by downscaling four regional climate models of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) suite and subsequent driving of a hydrologic model. We employ the entire model chain from global and regional climate models, station‐based statistical downscaling, and a fully distributed, physically based hydrologic model and verify the results against observed streamflow. The performance is model dependent but is generally encouraging enough to justify the application of the climate scenarios. A general warming of about 2°C is projected and, on average, slightly drier conditions, especially in late summer. We find evidence that the projected changes are elevation dependent and relatively small scale, with decreasing signals with higher elevations. All models project a shift of the hydrograph toward a more rain‐fed regime, with peak flows occurring in June instead of July. Annual peak flow is projected to not increase, and August low flow decreases in all four models. With nonshrinking (static) glaciers, relatively high melting rates are simulated for August and September that partly compensate for the shifted hydrograph; this enhanced glacier melt is also detected in simulated historic Columbia headwater flow. The static approximation is supported by a heuristic seasonal sensitivity analysis that suggests a moderate average areal glacier recession of about 10% for the midcentury. We discuss the need for a dynamic glacier component for a refined assessment of future drought risk.
dc.description.reviewstatusReviewed
dc.description.scholarlevelFaculty
dc.identifier.citationBürger, G., Schulla, J., & Werner, A. T. (2011). Estimates of future flow, including extremes, of the Columbia River headwaters. Water Resources Research, 47(10), W10520. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009716
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009716
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1828/21794
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherWater Resources Research
dc.subjectUN SDG 13: Climate Action
dc.subject#journal article
dc.subjectPacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC)
dc.titleEstimates of future flow, including extremes, of the Columbia River headwaters
dc.typeArticle

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