Attributing northern high-latitude precipitation change over the period 1966–2005 to human influence
Date
2015
Authors
Wan, Hui
Zhang, Xuebin
Zwiers, Francis W.
Min, Seung-Ki
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Climate Dynamics
Abstract
Using an optimal fingerprinting method and improved observations, we compare observed and CMIP5 model simulated annual, cold season and warm season (semi-annual) precipitation over northern high-latitude (north of 50°N) land over 1966–2005. We find that the multi-model simulated responses to the effect of anthropogenic forcing or the effect of anthropogenic and natural forcing combined are consistent with observed changes. We also find that the influence of anthropogenic forcing may be separately detected from that of natural forcings, though the effect of natural forcing cannot be robustly detected. This study confirms our early finding that anthropogenic influence in high-latitude precipitation is detectable. However, in contrast with the previous study, the evidence now indicates that the models do not underestimated observed changes. The difference in the latter aspect is most likely due to improvement in the spatial–temporal coverage of the data used in this study, as well as the details of data processing procedures.
Description
Keywords
climate change, detection and attribution, high-latitude precipitation, UN SDG 13: Climate Action, #journal article, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC)
Citation
Wan, H., Zhang, X., Zwiers, F. W., & Min, S.-K. (2015). Attributing northern high-latitude precipitation change over the period 1966–2005 to human influence. Climate Dynamics, 45(7–8), 1713–1726. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2423-y