Attributing extreme fire risk in Western Canada to human emissions

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dc.contributor.authorKirchmeier-Young, Megan C.
dc.contributor.authorZwiers, Francis W.
dc.contributor.authorGillett, Nathan P.
dc.contributor.authorCannon, Alex J.
dc.date.accessioned2025-04-10T20:27:24Z
dc.date.available2025-04-10T20:27:24Z
dc.date.issued2017
dc.description.abstractCanada is expected to see an increase in fire risk under future climate projections. Large fires, such as that near Fort McMurray, Alberta in 2016, can be devastating to the communities affected. Understanding the role of human emissions in the occurrence of such extreme fire events can lend insight into how these events might change in the future. An event attribution framework is used to quantify the influence of anthropogenic forcings on extreme fire risk in the current climate of a western Canada region. Fourteen metrics from the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System are used to define the extreme fire seasons. For the majority of these metrics and during the current decade, the combined effect of anthropogenic and natural forcing is estimated to have made extreme fire risk events in the region 1.5 to 6 times as likely compared to a climate that would have been with natural forcings alone.
dc.description.reviewstatusReviewed
dc.description.scholarlevelFaculty
dc.description.sponsorshipThis work was funded by the Canadian Sea Ice and Snow Evolution (CanSISE) Network, which is part of the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) Climate Change and Atmospheric Research (CCAR) program..
dc.identifier.citationKirchmeier-Young, M. C., Zwiers, F. W., Gillett, N. P., & Cannon, A. J. (2017). Attributing extreme fire risk in Western Canada to human emissions. Climatic Change, 144(2), 365–379. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2030-0
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2030-0
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1828/21768
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherClimatic Change
dc.rightsCC BY 4.0
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectevent attribution
dc.subjectextremes
dc.subjectfire weather
dc.subjectUN SDG 13: Climate Action
dc.subject#journal article
dc.subjectPacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC)
dc.subjectCanadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma)
dc.titleAttributing extreme fire risk in Western Canada to human emissions
dc.typeArticle

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