Risks from climate extremes change differently from 1.5°C to 2.0°C depending on rarity

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dc.contributor.authorKharin, Viatcheslav V.
dc.contributor.authorFlato, Greg
dc.contributor.authorZhang, Xuebin
dc.contributor.authorGillett, Nathan P.
dc.contributor.authorZwiers, Francis W.
dc.contributor.authorAnderson, Kevin
dc.date.accessioned2025-04-10T20:27:31Z
dc.date.available2025-04-10T20:27:31Z
dc.date.issued2018
dc.description.abstractParties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change have agreed to hold the “increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above preindustrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C.” Comparison of the costs and benefits for different warming limits requires an understanding of how risks vary between warming limits. As changes in risk are often associated with changes in exposure due to projected changes in local or regional climate extremes, we analyze differences in the risks of extreme daily temperatures and extreme daily precipitation amounts under different warming limits. We show that global warming of 2°C would result in substantially larger changes in the probabilities of the extreme events than global warming of 1.5°C. For example, over the global land area, the probability of a warm extreme that occurs once every 20 years on average in the current climate is projected to increase 130% and 340% at the 1.5°C and 2.0°C warming levels, respectively (median values). Moreover, the relative changes in probability are larger for rarer, more extreme events, implying that risk assessments need to carefully consider the extreme event thresholds at which vulnerabilities occur.
dc.description.reviewstatusReviewed
dc.description.scholarlevelFaculty
dc.identifier.citationKharin, V. V., Flato, G., Zhang, X., Gillett, N. P., Zwiers, F. W., & Anderson, K. (2018). Risks from climate extremes change differently from 1.5°C to 2.0°C depending on rarity. Earth’s Future, 6(5), 704–715. https://doi.org/10.1002/2018EF000813
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1002/2018EF000813
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1828/21846
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherEarth's Future
dc.rightsCC BY-NC-ND 4.0
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.subjectUN SDG 13: Climate Action
dc.subject#journal article
dc.subjectPacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC)
dc.subjectCanadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma)
dc.titleRisks from climate extremes change differently from 1.5°C to 2.0°C depending on rarity
dc.typeArticle

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