Examining Forced Displacement in Ethiopia as a Mechanism for Inducing Conflict

Date

2025

Authors

Musicco, Jack C.

Journal Title

Journal ISSN

Volume Title

Publisher

University Of Victoria

Abstract

Does forced displacement exacerbate regional conflict within Ethiopia? This question remains actively debated, with significant policy implications. I analyze a panel of 76 zones in Ethiopia from 2017 to 2024, using near-quarterly spatiotemporal data on internal displacement, precipitation, and conflict events. By applying a well-established two-way fixed effects panel estimator, I measure the impact of displacement on conflict while controlling for precipitation as a proxy for drought. My results show that higher levels of internally displaced persons (IDPs) have a statistically significant, though very small, positive effect on total conflict. These findings contribute to the existing literature and underscore the importance of addressing displacement, as it may play a role in exacerbating conflict in affected regions.

Description

Keywords

forced displacement, conflict, Ethiopia, DP, Disaster Tracking Matrix, two-way fixed effects

Citation