The impact of ENSO and the NAO on extreme winter precipitation in North America in observations and regional climate models

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dc.contributor.authorWhan, Kirien
dc.contributor.authorZwiers, Francis W.
dc.date.accessioned2025-04-10T20:27:43Z
dc.date.available2025-04-10T20:27:43Z
dc.date.issued2017
dc.description.abstractThe relationship between winter precipitation in North America and indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is evaluated using non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions with the indices as covariates. Both covariates have a statistically significant influence on precipitation that is well simulated by two regional climate models (RCMs), CanRCM4 and CRCM5. The observed influence of the NAO on extreme precipitation is largest in eastern North America, with the likelihood of a negative phase extreme rainfall event decreased in the north and increased in the south under the positive phase of the NAO. This pattern is generally well simulated by the RCMs although there are some differences in the extent of influence, particularly south of the Great Lakes. A La Niña-magnitude extreme event is more likely to occur under El Niño conditions in California and the southern United States, and less likely in most of Canada and a region south of the Great Lakes. This broad pattern is also simulated well by the RCMs but they do not capture the increased likelihood in California. In some places the extreme precipitation response in the RCMs to external forcing from a covariate is of the opposite sign, despite use of the same lateral boundary conditions and dynamical core. This demonstrates the importance of model physics for teleconnections to extreme precipitation.
dc.description.reviewstatusReviewed
dc.description.scholarlevelFaculty
dc.description.sponsorshipThis work is supported by the Canadian Network for Regional Climate and Weather Processes (CNRCWP) and the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium. CNRCWP is funded by the National Science and Engineering Research Council (NSERC).
dc.identifier.citationWhan, K., & Zwiers, F. W. (2017). The impact of ENSO and the NAO on extreme winter precipitation in North America in observations and regional climate models. Climate Dynamics, 48(5–6), 1401–1411. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3148-x
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3148-x
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1828/21856
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherClimate Dynamics
dc.rightsCC BY 4.0
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectENSO
dc.subjectextreme precipitation
dc.subjectGEV
dc.subjectNAO
dc.subjectUN SDG 13: Climate Action
dc.subject#journal article
dc.subjectPacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC)
dc.titleThe impact of ENSO and the NAO on extreme winter precipitation in North America in observations and regional climate models
dc.typeArticle

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