Understanding, modeling and predicting weather and climate extremes: Challenges and opportunities

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dc.contributor.authorSillmann, Jana
dc.contributor.authorThorarinsdottir, Thordis
dc.contributor.authorKeenlyside, Noel
dc.contributor.authorSchaller, Nathalie
dc.contributor.authorAlexander, Lisa V.
dc.contributor.authorHegerl, Gabriele
dc.contributor.authorSeneviratne, Sonia I.
dc.contributor.authorVautard, Robert
dc.contributor.authorZhang, Xuebin
dc.contributor.authorZwiers, Francis W.
dc.date.accessioned2025-04-10T20:27:43Z
dc.date.available2025-04-10T20:27:43Z
dc.date.issued2017
dc.description.abstractWeather and climate extremes areidentified as major areas necessitating further progress in climate research and have thus been selected as one of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)Grand Challenges. Here, we provide an overview of current challenges and opportunities for scientific progress and cross-community collaboration on the topic of understanding, modeling and predicting extreme events based on an expert workshop organized as part of the implementation of the WCRP Grand Challenge on Weather and Climate Extremes. In general, the development of an extreme event depends on a favorable initial state, the presence of large-scale drivers, and positive local feedbacks, as well as stochastic processes. We, therefore, elaborate on the scientific challenges related to large-scale drivers and local-to-regional feedback processes leading to extreme events. A better understanding of the drivers and processes will improve the prediction of extremes and will support process-based evaluation of the representation of weather and climate extremes in climate model simulations. Further, we discuss how to address these challenges by focusing on short-duration (less than three days) and long-duration (weeks to months) extreme events, their underlying mechanisms and approaches for their evaluation and prediction.
dc.description.reviewstatusReviewed
dc.description.scholarlevelFaculty
dc.description.sponsorshipThe workshop was supported by funding from WCRP, the Norwegian Environment Department, and the Norwegian Research Council through projects ClimateXL (grant 243953), MCLIX (grant 240751)and HDwave (grant243814). NK acknowledges support from the Nord Forsk GREENICE Project (grant 61841). This work contributes to the World Climate Research Programme Grand Challenge on Weather and Climate Extremes.
dc.identifier.citationSillmann, J., Thorarinsdottir, T., Keenlyside, N., Schaller, N., Alexander, L. V., Hegerl, G., Seneviratne, S. I., Vautard, R., Zhang, X., & Zwiers, F. W. (2017). Understanding, modeling and predicting weather and climate extremes: Challenges and opportunities. Weather and Climate Extremes, 18, 65–74. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2017.10.003
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2017.10.003
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1828/21863
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherWeather and Climate Extremes
dc.rightsCC BY-NC-ND 4.0
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.subjectUN SDG 13: Climate Action
dc.subject#journal article
dc.subjectPacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC)
dc.titleUnderstanding, modeling and predicting weather and climate extremes: Challenges and opportunities
dc.typeArticle

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