Increasing certainty in projected local extreme precipitation change

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dc.contributor.authorLi, Chao
dc.contributor.authorLiu, Jieyu
dc.contributor.authorDu, Fujun
dc.contributor.authorZwiers, Francis W.
dc.contributor.authorFeng, Guolin
dc.date.accessioned2025-04-10T20:27:44Z
dc.date.available2025-04-10T20:27:44Z
dc.date.issued2025
dc.description.abstractThe latest climate models project widely varying magnitudes of future extreme precipitation changes, thus impeding effective adaptation planning. Many observational constraints have been proposed to reduce the uncertainty of these projections at global to sub-continental scales, but adaptation generally requires detailed, local scale information. Here, we present a temperature-based adaptative emergent constraint strategy combined with data aggregation that reduces the error variance of projected end-ofcentury changes in annual extremes of daily precipitation under a high emissions scenario by >20% across most areas of the world. These improved projections could benefit nearly 90% of the world’s population by permitting better impact assessment and adaptation planning at local levels. Our physically motivated strategy, which considers the thermodynamic and dynamic components of projected extreme precipitation change, exploits the link between global warming and the thermodynamic component of extreme precipitation. Rigorous cross-validation provides strong evidence of its reliability in constraining local extreme precipitation projections.
dc.description.reviewstatusReviewed
dc.description.scholarlevelFaculty
dc.description.sponsorshipC.L. and F.D. are supported by National Key R&D Program of China (2020YFA0608901) and National Natural Science Foundation of China (42075026).
dc.identifier.citationLi, C., Liu, J., Du, F., Zwiers, F. W., & Feng, G. (2025). Increasing certainty in projected local extreme precipitation change. Nature Communications, 16(1), 850. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-56235-9
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-56235-9
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1828/21878
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherNature Communications
dc.rightsCC BY-NC-ND 4.0
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.subjectUN SDG 13: Climate Action
dc.subject#journal article
dc.subjectPacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC)
dc.titleIncreasing certainty in projected local extreme precipitation change
dc.typeArticle

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