Development of a disease analytic model for estimating the hidden population using the stratified-Petersen estimator
| dc.contributor.author | Ma, Siying | |
| dc.contributor.supervisor | Cowen, Laura Louise Elizabeth | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2024-08-16T22:05:15Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2024-08-16T22:05:15Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2024 | |
| dc.degree.department | Department of Mathematics and Statistics | |
| dc.degree.level | Master of Science MSc | |
| dc.description.abstract | The COVID-19 pandemic brought the need for novel disease analytic models capable of estimating the true number of infections, including those that evaded detection. Statistical methods, such as the stratified-Petersen estimator, provide effective ways in wildlife population modelling to estimate hard-to-reach population size. We developed a novel disease analytic model to estimate the levels of underreported COVID-19 cases and the true population size based on the idea of developing a Bayesian version of the stratified-Petersen estimator under a state-space formulation using individual-level capture-recapture data. We obtained the capture events from individuals’ electronic health records and treated the occurrence of positive SARS-CoV-2 diagnostic test results and 2020 COVID-19-related hospitalizations as the tagging and recapture processes. Applying this model to the data from the Northern Health Authority region in British Columbia, Canada in 2020 by using a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach, we found that the estimate of the size of the COVID-19 population (Nˆ = 2, 967) is 1.58 (95% CI: (1.53, 1.63)) times greater than the observed cases (nobs = 1, 880), which is a comparable result to those reported in other studies. | |
| dc.description.scholarlevel | Graduate | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/1828/20293 | |
| dc.language | English | eng |
| dc.language.iso | en | |
| dc.rights | Available to the World Wide Web | |
| dc.subject | disease analytic model | |
| dc.subject | hidden population estimation | |
| dc.subject | stratified-Petersen estimator | |
| dc.subject | state-space formulation | |
| dc.title | Development of a disease analytic model for estimating the hidden population using the stratified-Petersen estimator | |
| dc.type | Thesis |