The Decadal Climate Prediction Project contribution to CMIP6

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dc.contributor.authorBoer, George J.
dc.contributor.authorSmith, Douglas M.
dc.contributor.authorCassou, Christophe
dc.contributor.authorDoblas-Reyes, Francisco
dc.contributor.authorDanabasoglu, Gokhan
dc.contributor.authorKirtman, Ben
dc.contributor.authorKushnir, Yochanan
dc.contributor.authorKimoto, Masahide
dc.contributor.authorMeehl, Gerald A.
dc.contributor.authorMsadek, Rym
dc.contributor.authorMueller, Wolfgang A.
dc.contributor.authorTaylor, Karl
dc.contributor.authorZwiers, Francis W.
dc.date.accessioned2025-04-10T20:27:32Z
dc.date.available2025-04-10T20:27:32Z
dc.date.issued2016
dc.description.abstractThe Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) is a coordinated multi-model investigation into decadal climate prediction, predictability, and variability. The DCPP makes use of past experience in simulating and predicting decadal variability and forced climate change gained from CMIP5 and elsewhere. It builds on recent improvements in models, in the reanalysis of climate data, in methods of initialization and ensemble generation, and in data treatment and analysis to propose an extended comprehensive decadal prediction investigation as part of CMIP6. The DCPP consists of three Components. Component A comprises the production and analysis of an extensive archive of retrospective forecasts to be used to assess and understand historical decadal prediction skill, as a basis for improvements in all aspects of end-to-end decadal prediction, and as a basis for forecasting on annual to decadal timescales. Component B undertakes ongoing production, dissemination and analysis of experimental quasi-real-time multi-model forecasts as a basis for potential operational forecast production. Component C involves the organization and coordination of case studies of particular climate shifts and variations, both natural and naturally forced (e.g. the "hiatus", volcanoes), including the study of the mechanisms that determine these behaviours. Groups are invited to participate in as many or as few of the Components of the DCPP, each of which are separately prioritized, as are of interest to them. The Decadal Climate Prediction Project addresses a range of scientific issues involving the ability of the climate system to be predicted on annual to decadal timescales, the skill that is currently and potentially available, the mechanisms involved in long timescale variability, and the production of forecasts of benefit to both science and society.
dc.description.reviewstatusReviewed
dc.description.scholarlevelFaculty
dc.description.sponsorshipWe are grateful to Environment and Climate Change Canada for providing publication support. Thanks to the Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI) for hosting a DCPP workshop which contributed to Component C with funding from NASA, NSF, NOAA, and DOE. DMS was supported by the joint DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101) and the EU FP7 SPECS project. W. M. Mueller was supported by the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) under the MiKlip project (grant number 01LP1519A). NCAR is sponsored by the US National Science Foundation.
dc.identifier.citationBoer, G. J., Smith, D. M., Cassou, C., Doblas-Reyes, F., Danabasoglu, G., Kirtman, B., Kushnir, Y., Kimoto, M., Meehl, G. A., Msadek, R., Mueller, W. A., Taylor, K., & Zwiers, F. W. (2016). The Decadal Climate Prediction Project contribution to CMIP6. Geoscientific Model Development, 9, 3751–3777. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-78
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-78
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1828/21853
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherGeoscientific Model Development
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
dc.subjectUN SDG 13: Climate Action
dc.subject#journal article
dc.subjectPacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC)
dc.subjectCanadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma)
dc.titleThe Decadal Climate Prediction Project contribution to CMIP6
dc.typeArticle

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