Determining the anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to the observed intensification of extreme precipitation

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dc.contributor.authorPaik, Seungmok
dc.contributor.authorMin, Seung‐Ki
dc.contributor.authorZhang, Xuebin
dc.contributor.authorDonat, Markus G.
dc.contributor.authorKing, Andrew D.
dc.contributor.authorSun, Qiaohong
dc.date.accessioned2025-04-10T20:27:26Z
dc.date.available2025-04-10T20:27:26Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.description.abstractThis study conducts a detection and attribution analysis of the observed changes in extreme precipitation during 1951–2015. Observed and CMIP6 multimodel simulated changes in annual maximum daily and consecutive 5‐day precipitation are compared using an optimal fingerprinting technique for different spatial scales from global land, Northern Hemisphere extratropics, tropics, three continental regions (North America and western and eastern Eurasia), and global “dry” and “wet” land areas (as defined by their average extreme precipitation intensities). Results indicate that anthropogenic greenhouse gas influence is robustly detected in the observed intensification of extreme precipitation over the global land and most of the subregions considered, all with clear separation from natural and anthropogenic aerosol forcings. Also, the human‐induced greenhouse gas increases are found to be a dominant contributor to the observed increase in extreme precipitation intensity, which largely follows the increased moisture availability under global warming. Plain Language Summary Human influences have been identified in the observed intensification of extreme precipitation at global and continental scales, but quantifying the contribution of greenhouse gas increases remains challenging. Here, we isolate anthropogenic greenhouse gas impacts on the observed intensification of extreme precipitation during 1951–2015 by comparing observations with CMIP6 individual forcing experiments. Results show that greenhouse gas influences are detected over the global land, Northern Hemisphere extratropics, western and eastern Eurasia, and global “dry” and “wet” regions, which are separable from other external forcings such as solar and volcanic activities and anthropogenic aerosols. The human‐induced greenhouse gas increases are also found to explain most of the observed changes in extreme precipitation intensity, which are consistent with the increased moisture availability with warming. Our results provide the first quantitative evidence for the dominant influence of human‐made greenhouse gases on extreme precipitation increase.
dc.description.reviewstatusReviewed
dc.description.scholarlevelFaculty
dc.description.sponsorshipThis study is supported by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under Grant KMI2018‐03610 and by a National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the South Korean government (MSIT) (NRF‐ 2018R1A5A1024958). M. G. D. is grateful for funding by the Spanish Ministry for the Economy, Industry and Competitiveness Ramón y Cajal 2017 grant (reference RYC‐2017‐22964) and the Horizon 2020 EUCP project (Grant Agreement 776613). A. D. K. receives funding from the Australian Research Council (DE180100638).
dc.identifier.citationPaik, S., Min, S., Zhang, X., Donat, M. G., King, A. D., & Sun, Q. (2020). Determining the anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to the observed intensification of extreme precipitation. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(12), e2019GL086875. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086875
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086875
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1828/21789
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherGeophysical Research Letters
dc.subjectUN SDG 13: Climate Action
dc.subject#journal article
dc.subjectPacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC)
dc.titleDetermining the anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to the observed intensification of extreme precipitation
dc.typeArticle

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