Comparison of Linear Predictability of Surface Wind Components from Observations with Simulations from RCMs and Reanalysis

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dc.contributor.authorMao, Yiwen
dc.contributor.authorMonahan, Adam H.
dc.date.accessioned2019-09-26T12:01:51Z
dc.date.available2019-09-26T12:01:51Z
dc.date.copyright2018en_US
dc.date.issued2018-04
dc.description.abstractThis study compares the predictability of surface wind components by linear statistical downscaling using data from both observations and comprehensive models [regional climate models (RCM) and NCEP-2 reanalysis] in three domains: North America (NAM), Europe–Mediterranean Basin (EMB), and East Asia (EAS). A particular emphasis is placed on predictive anisotropy, a phenomenon referring to unequal predictability of surface wind components in different directions. Simulated predictability by comprehensive models is generally close to that found in observations in flat regions of NAM and EMB, but it is overestimated relative to observations in mountainous terrain. Simulated predictability in EAS shows different structures. In particular, there are regions in EAS where predictability simulated by RCMs is lower than that in observations. Overestimation of predictability by comprehensive models tends to occur in regions of low predictability in observations and can be attributed to small-scale physical processes not resolved by comprehensive models. An idealized mathematical model is used to characterize the predictability of wind components. It is found that the signal strength along the direction of minimum predictability is the dominant control on the strength of predictive anisotropy. The biases in the model representation of the statistical relationship between free-tropospheric circulation and surface winds are interpreted in terms of inadequate simulation of small-scale processes in regional and global models, and the primary cause of predictive anisotropy is attributed to such small-scale processes.en_US
dc.description.reviewstatusRevieweden_US
dc.description.scholarlevelFacultyen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipThis research was supported by the Discovery Grants program of the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Regional Climate and the Working Group on Coupled Modelling, former coordinating body of CORDEX and responsible panel for CMIP5. We thank the climate modeling groups (listed in Table 2 of this paper) for producing and making available their model output. We also acknowledge the Earth System Grid Federation infrastructure, an international effort led by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, and other partners in the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals (GO-ESSP).en_US
dc.identifier.citationMao, Y. & Monahan, A. (2018). Comparison of Linear Predictability of Surface Wind Components from Observations with Simulations from RCMs and Reanalysis. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 57(4), 889-906. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0283.1en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0283.1
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1828/11182
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherJournal of Applied Meteorology and Climatologyen_US
dc.subjectAsiaen_US
dc.subjectEuropeen_US
dc.subjectNorth Americaen_US
dc.subjectRegression analysisen_US
dc.subjectReanalysis dataen_US
dc.subjectRegional modelsen_US
dc.titleComparison of Linear Predictability of Surface Wind Components from Observations with Simulations from RCMs and Reanalysisen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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