Less reliable water availability in the 21st century climate projections

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dc.contributor.authorKumar, Sanjiv
dc.contributor.authorLawrence, David M.
dc.contributor.authorDirmeyer, Paul A.
dc.contributor.authorSheffield, Justin
dc.date.accessioned2025-04-10T20:27:29Z
dc.date.available2025-04-10T20:27:29Z
dc.date.issued2014
dc.description.abstractThe temporal variability of river and soil water affects society at time scales ranging from hourly to decadal. The available water (AW), i.e., precipitation minus evapotranspiration, represents the total water available for runoff, soil water storage change, and ground water recharge. The reliability of AW is defined as the annual range of AW between local wet and dry seasons. A smaller annual range represents greater reliability and a larger range denotes less reliability. Here we assess the reliability of AW in the 21st century climate projections by 20 climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The multimodel consensus suggests less reliable AW in the 21st century than in the 20th century with generally decreasing AW in local dry seasons and increasing AW in local wet seasons. In addition to the canonical perspective from climate models that wet regions will get wetter, this study suggests greater dryness during dry seasons even in regions where the mean climate becomes wetter. Lower emission scenarios show significant advantages in terms of minimizing impacts on AW but do not eliminate these impacts altogether.
dc.description.reviewstatusReviewed
dc.description.scholarlevelFaculty
dc.description.sponsorshipThis study received support from the following grants: NSF 0947837, NSF 0830068, NOAA NA09OAR4310058, NOAA NA11OAR4310097, NASA NNX09AN50G, and U.S. Department of Energy, Cooperative Agreement DEFC02-97ER62402.
dc.identifier.citationKumar, S., Lawrence, D. M., Dirmeyer, P. A., & Sheffield, J. (2014). Less reliable water availability in the 21st century climate projections. Earth’s Future, 2(3), 152–160. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013EF000159
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1002/2013EF000159
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1828/21823
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherEarth's Future
dc.rightsCC BY-NC-ND 3.0
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/
dc.subjectUN SDG 13: Climate Action
dc.subject#journal article
dc.subjectPacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC)
dc.titleLess reliable water availability in the 21st century climate projections
dc.typeArticle

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