The impact of outmigration on employment in the Atlantic Provinces and Quebec : an update and analysis of John Vanderkamp's 1970 study
Date
1992
Authors
Roberts, Erin Christine Newton
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Abstract
In 1970 the Canadian Journal of Economics published a paper by John Vanderkamp entitled, "The Effect of Outmigration on Regional Unemployment". Vanderkamp addressed the proposition that emigration from a region has a detrimental effect on the level of unemployment in that region. Vanderkamp's results for the period 1951-61 indicated that for every five unemployed people leaving the Maritimes another two people became unemployed. The purpose of this thesis is to determine whether or not Vanderkamp's results are repeatable for the period 1971-81.
In addition to reproducing the Vanderkamp model for the 1971-81 period, this thesis attempts to improve on his model by expanding the data set to include the entire Atlantic Provinces and Quebec. The model is also refined by the use of the Two Stage Least Squares estimation procedure.
The conclusion of the thesis is that Vanderkamp's results are not repeatable for the period 1971-81 using Vanderkamp's model. Vanderkamp's model produces a negative employment multiplier with 1951-61 data and a positive employment multiplier with 1971-81 data. Possibilities examined for this result were that (a) the Maritime region was anomalous for 1971-81; (b) a few anomalous observations were distorting the results; (c) a feedback effect between outmigration and employment was distorting the results; and/or, (d) census divisions with net outmigration share characteristics that affect the relationship between outmigration and employment and that those characteristics are not shared by the census divisions with net inmigration.
Tests for (a), (b), and (c) proved negative. The test for (d) proved positive. For the period 1971-81, if Vanderkamp's model is expanded to include both census divisions showing net inmigration and net outmigration, his negative multiplier can be reproduced.
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UN SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth