Spatial and temporal analysis of the distribution of bacterial contamination in nearshore areas of Southern Vancouver Island




Xu, Kaifeng

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This research conducts a spatial and temporal analysis of the distribution of fecal coliform throughout the Capital Regional District (CRD) of southern Vancouver Island. The research is based on 17 years of historical data of stormwater samplings from 1995 to 2011 in the nearshore region. ArcGIS is used to map the fecal coliform data collected within and adjacent to nearshore areas to identify peaks above a regulated threshold. Heavily polluted areas are in Victoria downtown, Esquimalt and the southeastern shore of Oak Bay. Land-use data and drainage patterns are used to determine relationships between fecal coliform levels and land-use by considering relevant, temporally dependent factors. Temperature is positively correlated with FC level and precipitation is negatively correlated. The residential land use is identified as the main source of bacterial contamination. This analysis leads to a regression model that indicates two peaks (July and October) of FC level occur in a 12-month period and positively related to minimum temperature and cloud cover ratio.



Bacterial contamination, Stormwater, Temporal-spatial variations, Periodicity analysis, Regression model