Assessing foresight to advance management of complex global problems

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dc.contributor.authorBerze, Ottilia E.
dc.contributor.supervisorAlthaus, Catherine
dc.date.accessioned2019-04-15T17:43:30Z
dc.date.available2019-04-15T17:43:30Z
dc.date.copyright2019en_US
dc.date.issued2019-04-15
dc.degree.departmentSchool of Public Administration
dc.degree.levelDoctor of Philosophy Ph.D.en_US
dc.description.abstractMany people do not like thinking about the future. If they do, over 50% of Canadians think “our way of life” (p. 7) will end within 100 years and over 80% of Canadians think “we need to change our worldview and way of life if we are to create a better future for the world” (Randle & Eckersley, 2015, p. 9). There is a good reason for this. Alarms have sounded over global urgent complex problems with potential for catastrophic consequences such as the development of artificial intelligence, climate change, mass extinction, nuclear war and pandemics (Marien & Halal, 2011). Society is also increasingly fragmenting as imminent crises build on lack of understanding, the sense of incapacity to act, fear, distrust, blame and a lack of hope. This struggle for humanity’s survival is complicated by the turbulent global environment in which institutions continue to follow path-dependent trajectories set forth in a different time and context. Governments at various levels face a problem of “fit” between current structures and processes, that have not progressed sufficiently to meet changing needs of a global society mired in complexity and governance challenges. However, hope exists. Incremental progress on many fronts and a massive amount of efforts and resources are being engaged worldwide. There are emerging fields, lenses and tools that can potentially alleviate complex problems and address this emergency. The purpose of this dissertation is to understand and assess dialogue-based foresight practices being applied towards complex problems in Canada to provide insights into how these practices can assist society to alleviate global urgent complex problems and their impacts, within this backdrop of looming crises. Foresight, alternatively known as future studies or scenario-building, is a forward-looking practice recognized and used globally with over 100 research organizations focused on foresight, widespread usage by firms and over 18 countries involved in foresight activities (Berze, 2014b). Overall literature findings suggest foresight is widely and at least incrementally effective with a number of impacts in various areas (Calof, Miller, & Jackson, 2012; March, Therond, & Leenhardt, 2012; Meissner, Gokhberg, & Sokolov, 2013) but the extent of this effectiveness, the mechanisms involved, and the specific foresight benefits per type of project needs further research and evidence. For instance, limited literature exists on whether foresight can transform complex situations and if so, under what conditions. Thus, opportunities exist for assessing and increasing foresight’s impact. This dissertation is a contextualized, systematic empirical study that taps into transdisciplinary literature and practice, case studies of how foresight has been used to address specific types of complex problems in Canada, as well as surveys and interviews with foresight experts and participants. This dissertation uses a foresight community scan and a comparative case study approach to provide practical and theoretical benefits to foresight and complex problem area stakeholders. The research focuses on studying the broad interactions of foresight and identifying the impacts of dialogue-based foresight projects on people and the outcomes of complex problems. The dissertation concludes that dialogue-based foresight is a valuable and unique practice for ameliorating complex problems and their consequences. Insights are offered towards dialogue-based foresight’s potential contributions within the context of other efforts directed at humanity’s struggle for survival and global complex problems. These insights can then foster the further development and application of dialogue-based foresight on a global scale to alleviate complex problems and their effects. The dissertation outlines recommendations on key next steps to realize these potential contributions.en_US
dc.description.scholarlevelGraduateen_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1828/10713
dc.languageEnglisheng
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.rightsAvailable to the World Wide Weben_US
dc.subjectforesighten_US
dc.subjectdialogue-baseden_US
dc.subjectcomplexen_US
dc.subjectglobalen_US
dc.subjectproblemsen_US
dc.subjectempiricalen_US
dc.subjecttransdisciplinaryen_US
dc.subjectcrisisen_US
dc.subjectcomparativeen_US
dc.subjectcasesen_US
dc.subjectcomparative case studyen_US
dc.subjecthopeen_US
dc.subjectpracticeen_US
dc.subjectcommunityen_US
dc.subjectCanadaen_US
dc.subjectprojectsen_US
dc.subjectimpacten_US
dc.subjectvalueen_US
dc.subjectfuturesen_US
dc.subjectscenarioen_US
dc.subjectfutureen_US
dc.subjectroleen_US
dc.subjectwicked problemsen_US
dc.subjecttransformativeen_US
dc.subjectcomplexityen_US
dc.subjectinterviewsen_US
dc.subjecturgenten_US
dc.subjectlensen_US
dc.subjectmechanismsen_US
dc.subjectassessmenten_US
dc.subjectwell-beingen_US
dc.subjectstrengtheningen_US
dc.subjectimprovingen_US
dc.subjectconceptsen_US
dc.subjecttypesen_US
dc.subjectforesight benefitsen_US
dc.subjectcontribution analysisen_US
dc.subjecttoolsen_US
dc.subjectapproachesen_US
dc.subjectmainstreamen_US
dc.subjectbarriersen_US
dc.subjectFore-CANen_US
dc.subjectGeorgia Basinen_US
dc.subjectGlobal Energy Landscapeen_US
dc.subjectAgricultural Adaptationen_US
dc.subjectCanadian Payment Systemen_US
dc.subject2020 Media Futuresen_US
dc.subjectsystemsen_US
dc.subjectdigitalen_US
dc.subjectclimate changeen_US
dc.subjectinfectious diseasesen_US
dc.subjectsustainabilityen_US
dc.subjectcopingen_US
dc.subjecttransitioningen_US
dc.subjectrecommendationsen_US
dc.subjectmulti-perspectiveen_US
dc.subjectdialogueen_US
dc.subjectconflict resolutionen_US
dc.subjectcollaborationen_US
dc.subjectdiversityen_US
dc.subjectoutcomesen_US
dc.subjectinvesten_US
dc.subjectcontexten_US
dc.subjectcontributionsen_US
dc.subjecteffortsen_US
dc.subjectinnovationen_US
dc.subjectcognitiveen_US
dc.subjectsocialen_US
dc.subjectunderstandingen_US
dc.subjectforesight literacyen_US
dc.subjectanticipationen_US
dc.subjectfutures literacyen_US
dc.titleAssessing foresight to advance management of complex global problemsen_US
dc.typeThesisen_US

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