The strategic triangle : a realist interpretation
Date
1989
Authors
Shen, Ming
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Abstract
As the title suggests, the basic theme of this thesis is a theoretical analysis of
the relationship between the People's Republic of China, the United States and the Soviet Union--a triad known to many as the Strategic Triangle in current international relations. This task is implemented in a realist framework. The theoretical origin of this thesis is outlined at the beginning; power relationships and the growing significance of economics in international relations are highlighted.
This thesis attempts to analyze three major events in the formation and the evolution of the Triangle: the Chinese "Lean- to-One-Side" policy towards the Soviet Union, the Sino-Soviet split in the l 950s and the Sino-American rapprochement in the early l 970s. The Taiwan problem is addressed only briefly. It is argued here that power (national interests) was the central element in explaining dramatic policy changes of the three states. Based on this argument, this thesis suggests that there is a problem of Chinese "overdependence" on the United States in current Sino-American relations. One resolution of this problem is to reinforce multilateral economic relations with other countries including the Soviet Union.
After an assessment of current economic conditions of the three countries, this thesis attempts to draw some broad lines of future change of the Triangle. It is concluded that Sino-American relations, though plagued with some problems, may remain stable. While improvement of political relations between China and the Soviet Union may be limited, economic cooperation between the two countries may drastically increase from the current level.