Simulating the present-day and future distribution of permafrost in the UVic Earth System Climate Model
| dc.contributor.author | Avis, Christopher Alexander | |
| dc.contributor.supervisor | Weaver, Andrew J. | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2012-06-21T20:02:11Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2012-06-21T20:02:11Z | |
| dc.date.copyright | 2012 | en_US |
| dc.date.issued | 2012-06-21 | |
| dc.degree.department | School of Earth and Ocean Sciences | en_US |
| dc.degree.level | Doctor of Philosophy Ph.D. | en_US |
| dc.description.abstract | Warming over the past century has been greatest in high-latitudes over land and a number of environmental indicators suggest that the Arctic climate system is in the process of a major transition. Given the magnitude of observed and projected changes in the Arctic, it is essential that a better understanding of the characteristics of the Arctic climate system be achieved. In this work, I report on modifications to the UVic Earth System Climate model to allow it to represent regions of perennially-frozen ground, or permafrost. I examine the model’s representation of the Arctic climate during the 20th Century and show that it capably represents the distribution and thermal state of permafrost in the present-day climate system. I use Representative Concentration Pathways to examine a range of possible future permafrost states to the year 2500. A suite of sensitivity experiments is used to better understand controls on permafrost. I demonstrate the potential for radical environmental changes in the Arctic over the 21st Century including continued warming, enhanced precipitation and a reduction of between 29 and 54 % of the present-day permafrost area by 2100. Model projections show that widespread loss of high-latitude wetlands may accompany the loss of near surface permafrost. | en_US |
| dc.description.scholarlevel | Graduate | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/1828/4030 | |
| dc.language | English | eng |
| dc.language.iso | en | en_US |
| dc.rights.temp | Available to the World Wide Web | en_US |
| dc.subject | Permafrost | en_US |
| dc.subject | Climate | en_US |
| dc.subject | Cryosphere | en_US |
| dc.subject | Climate Model | en_US |
| dc.subject | Numerical Model | en_US |
| dc.subject | Wetlands | en_US |
| dc.subject | Carbon Cycle | en_US |
| dc.title | Simulating the present-day and future distribution of permafrost in the UVic Earth System Climate Model | en_US |
| dc.type | Thesis | en_US |