Do meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological indicators all point to an increased frequency and intensity of droughts across Canada under a changing climate?
Date
2024
Authors
Bonsal, Barrie
Tam, Benita
Zhang, Xuebin
Li, Guilong
Philps, Lisa
Rong, Robin
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Atmosphere-Ocean
Abstract
Droughts, one of the most significant natural hazards, are complex in nature with varying definitions typically tailored to the timing and/or duration of the episode along with associated impacts. Although previous investigations have assessed future drought occurrence across Canada, none have comprehensively and collectively assessed changes to meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought indicators using CMIP6 GCM projections. The main objective of this study was to assess future drought conditions across Canada at various temporal scales using standardized indices representing meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts under multiple shared socio-economic pathways for the near (2041–2060) and far (2081–2100) future. On an annual basis, projected changes to all three drought indicators signify increased drying across the Prairies, portions of interior British Columbia, and most of Ontario. This drying is greater and covers more of the countryduring the warm season (April to September), while in summer and to a lesser extent autumn, widespread changes are only projected for meteorological and agricultural indicators. In spring, increased dry conditions are only prevalent in meteorological and hydrological indices. The cold season of October to March essentially shows little to no drying in any type of drought. Changes in all drought indices are amplified for higher SSPs andduring the late century. This study improves an understanding of the spatial and temporal variations in projected changes to various drought types across Canada in response to human-induced warming. While results from this analysis are applicable for nationwide drought assessments and drought management plans, they are less suitable for application at local scales where more detailed modelling may be required.
Description
Keywords
UN SDG 13: Climate Action
Citation
Bonsal, B., Tam, B., Zhang, X., Li, G., Philps, L., & Rong, R. (2024). Do meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological indicators all point to an increased frequency and intensity of droughts across Canada under a changing climate? Atmosphere-Ocean, 62(5), 372–390. https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2025.2453678