Faculty and Staff Publications

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Rapid attribution of extreme events in Canada
(Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC), 2026) Gillett, Nathan
In recent years, Canada has experienced a number of impactful extreme events, such as the 2021 BC heatwave, which was the deadliest natural disaster on record in Canada, and the 2021 BC floods, which were the costliest natural disaster on record in BC. Quantification of the influence of human-induced climate change on the probability of such extreme events can help inform climate change adaptation and public understanding of the effects of climate change, and such information is much more impactful if available shortly after an event. This has prompted Environment and Climate Change Canada to develop a rapid event attribution system for extreme events in Canada. The system runs automatically on a daily basis and provides information on the human influence on hot extremes, cold extremes and precipitation extremes for extreme events across Canada shortly after they are observed. This talk will describe the current event attribution system, based on existing CMIP6 coupled climate model simulations, and describe its extension to higher resolution atmosphere model simulations using Canadian climate and weather predictions models, which will allow the better representation of impactful phenomena such as atmospheric rivers and post-tropical cyclones. Examples of results for recent extreme events in BC will also be presented.
Of men and markets: Hayek, masculinity, and neoliberalism
(Economy and Society, 2022) Garlick, Steve
A key aspect of Friedrich von Hayek’s thought is the importance he places on the concept of complexity and the way that it limits human capacities for knowledge and control. Interrogating the intersection of complexity, neoliberal theory, and systems of gender relations, this paper examines the place of masculinity in Hayek’s work. Reading against the grain of Hayek’s texts, I draw out the gendered assumptions that are embedded in them to consider how hegemonic masculinities may provide sustenance to neoliberalism. Focusing on The Road to Serfdom and The Fatal Conceit, the paper argues that Hayek ultimately fails to fully embrace complexity because his texts enact and rely upon a masculine subject position that limits awareness of human embeddedness in social and natural systems.
Carbon rotation ages and the offset measurement conundrum: An extended review
(Ecological Economics, 2025) van Kooten, G. Cornelis
The Faustmann-Hartman rotation age literature focuses on the commercial and amenity values of timber. Amenity values are a direct function of the volume on the stand at any time (Hartman) and/or the change in volume (carbon values). The rotation-age is extended to include concern that warming levels are a function of cumulative emissions, and, depending on timeframes, whether temporary storage in post-harvest wood product (PHWP) sinks influence the climate once re-emissions are considered. When carbon fluxes occur and how they are valued is important! If carbon values are discounted at the social rate of time preference, cumulative emissions are considered less important than they ought to be. The tension between the social rate of time preference and a rate used to discount the value of future carbon fluxes affects the optimal rotation age calculation. It creates a divergence between the socially and privately optimal rotation ages that is not accounted for by monetary discount rates or a carbon price, even though carbon pricing is regarded as the best means of correcting the climate externality. Results also indicate that forests should not be left unharvested for carbon benefits.
Boat noise reduces vocalization rate and alters vocal characteristics in wild plainfin midshipman fish
(Marine Pollution Bulletin, 2025) Woods, Mackenzie B.; Halliday, William D.; Balshine, Sigal; Juanes, Francis
Anthropogenic noise pollution has been accelerating at an alarming rate, greatly altering aquatic soundscapes. Animals use various mechanisms to avoid acoustic masking in noisy environments, including altering calling rates or the frequency (pitch) of their vocalizations or increasing the amplitude (loudness) of their vocalizations (i.e., exhibiting the Lombard effect), but few studies have examined this vocal plasticity in fishes. We tested the effects of in situ motorboat noise on the agonistic and mating vocalizations of nesting plainfin midshipman fish (Porichthys notatus), and found that midshipman fish reduce and alter their vocalizations in the presence of boat noise. During boat noise, fish produced four times fewer agonistic vocalizations compared to ambient control periods. The fish also increased the frequency of mating hums and the amplitude of grunts and growls during boat noise. This study is the first to experimentally demonstrate the Lombard effect in fishes using real motorboat noise.
Supply chain serviceability under climate change with application in the Arctic
(Transportation Research Part D, 2025) Guitouni, Adel; Khorshidvand, Behrooz; Gilani Larimi, Niloofar; Boukhtout, Abdeslem; Qasrawi, Yazan
This study evaluates the resilience of Arctic supply chains to climate change by introducing the concept of supply chain serviceability. We define serviceability as a function of vulnerabilities in transportation nodes and modes under disruption threats, focusing on climate change impacts. Using climate data from Northern Canada, we assess serviceability under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): SSP1-2.6 (low emissions), SSP2-4.5 (moderate emissions), and SSP5-8.5 (high emissions). We use Monte Carlo simulations to predict climate-induced impacts on six airports and three aircraft types. The detailed analysis of Yellowknife and Iqaluit airports and military aircraft validates our methodology. We include the results for additional airports and aircraft types in the e-companion. Our findings indicate average serviceability index declines of up to 51 permafrost degradation, extreme weather events, and infrastructure vulnerabilities. Our study provides actionable managerial insights and theoretical contributions to support supply chain resilience initiatives.
Candidate DNA and RNA viruses of Drosophila suzukii from Canada and Germany, and their interactions with Wolbachia
(Journal of Invertebrate Pathology, 2025) Dudzic, Jan P.; McPherson, Audrey E.; Taylor, Keelie E.; Eben, Astrid; Abram, Paul K.; Perlman, Steve J.
Some species of insects harbour strains of the endosymbiotic bacteria Wolbachia that do not cause obvious reproductive manipulations, and so it is unclear why they persist in host populations. There is some evidence that some of these endosymbionts may provide their hosts with protection against viruses, which would help to explain their persistence, but few studies have explored associations between Wolbachia and naturally occurring, common viruses in natural populations. Here, we asked whether individuals of the invasive vinegar fly Drosophila suzukii infected with the wSuz strain of Wolbachia were less likely to be infected by naturally occurring viruses in its invaded range, in western North America and in Europe. First, using next-generation sequencing, we conducted a virome survey of adult and larval D. suzukii in British Columbia, Canada, finding eight candidate RNA viruses and two candidate DNA viruses; all but one have not been reported previously. Only the previously described Teise virus, an RNA virus, was abundant in our virome survey. We then screened individual flies from British Columbia and Germany for Teise virus and Wolbachia. Wolbachia-infected D. suzukii from the field were not less likely to be infected by Teise virus. Overall, our results do not provide conclusive evidence that wSuz provides strong protection for D. suzukii against viruses that are common in natural populations. However, the other viruses that we discovered in this study deserve further characterization in terms of their pathogenicity to D. suzukii and the frequency and dynamics of infection in wild populations.
Welfare and income effects of tuition subsidies and public investment in schooling
(Economic Modelling, 2025) Kumar, Alok
Evidence demonstrates that poorer individuals have lower human capital attainment than richer individuals. This study constructs and estimates a two-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with human capital to analyse the welfare and income effects of different types of public schooling expenditure in India. The results show that tuition subsidies that are targeted towards the poor have a significantly positive effect on households' income and welfare. Although the rich suffer welfare loss, aggregate welfare rises. Public schooling investment and untargeted tuition subsidies have a significantly positive effect on poor households' income and welfare; however, the effect is smaller relative to tuition subsidies targeted at the poor. Public schooling investment has a larger impact on poor households' human capital and income.
OPMS - A web-based ocean pollution monitoring system
(Marine Pollution Bulletin, 2025) Liu, Zhaoze; You, Shuai; Xing, Li; Durand, Guillaume; Moccia, L. Paul; Mercier, Vincent; Pan, Youlian; Zhang,Xuekui
Marine pollution poses significant risks to both marine ecosystems and human health, requiring effective monitoring and control measures. This study presents the Ocean Pollution Monitoring System (OPMS), a web application designed to visualize the seasonal and annual fluctuations of marine pollutants along coastal regions in Canada. The pollutants include fecal coliform and biotoxins such as paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP), and amnesic shellfish poisoning (ASP). The OPMS utilizes 20 years of data from nearly 15,000 shellfish harvesting sites across six provinces of Canada, allowing users to explore trends and the impact of these pollutants in user-selected geographical regions. The seasonal fluctuation patterns of fecal coliform and biotoxin levels were extracted by Functional Principal Component Analysis (FPCA) previously. OPMS visualizes these results in finer granularity to provide environmental managers and policymakers with a decision-support tool in shellfish safety and water quality management. The tool is accessible at http://opms.uvic.ca.
Noise results in lower quality of an important forage fish the Pacific sand lance, Ammodytes personatus
(Marine Pollution Bulletin, 2025) Carlson, Nora V.; White, Meredith A.V.; Tavera, Jose; O'Hara, Patrick D.; Baker, Matthew R.; Bertram, Douglas F., Summers, Adam; Fifield, David A.; Juanes, Francis
Anthropogenic noise is a pervasive environmental pollutant that continues to expand and increase globally, especially in marine environments, affecting many marine animals, especially fish. Although interest and concern regarding the effects of noise on fish has increased, most studies still focus on the effects noise has on individual species, often overlooking wider system-level consequences. This is particularly true of trophically important species such as forage fish. We investigated how different types of anthropogenic noise affect the quality of an important forage fish species, Pacific sand lance, Ammodytes personatus, which could impact the many species that rely on them. We found that, compared to controls, fish in noisy environments had lower energy density and lower weight at a given length. These results suggest that even over shorter periods of time the anthropogenic noise could reduce sand lance quality, which in-turn could cascade up the food chain causing drastic ecosystem-level consequences.
The role of fiber surface treatment on improving mechanical performance of cementitious composites
(Construction and Building Materials, 2025) Viradiya, Jaykumar; Gupta, Rishi
Polypropylene (PP) fibers are widely used in fiber-reinforced composites due to their mechanical benefits; however, their non-polar nature results in poor adhesion with the cementitious matrix, resulting in premature debonding failure and limiting overall composite performance. This research proposed a novel adhesive-based surface treatment approach using siliceous materials as a supplementary cementitious material and investigates the impact of this surface modification on the mechanical and microstructural properties of fiber-reinforced cementitious mortar (FRCM) and fiber-reinforced concrete (FRC). PP fibers at three volume fractions—0.3?%, 0.6?%, and 0.9?%—were incorporated into mortar and concrete mixes to assess the effect of the treatment. Mechanical tests, including compression, tensile, flexural, and pullout tests, revealed significant improvements in the treated fiber samples, with the pullout tests showing the most pronounced enhancement in bond strength. Notably, surface-treated fibers demonstrated improved energy absorption in both pre-crack and post-crack phases, highlighting their effectiveness as crack retarders and in crack-bridging mechanisms. In addition, contact angle measurements show improvement in adhesion capabilities of surface-treated fibers. Microscopic analysis utilizing scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDX/EDS) demonstrated that the surface treatment significantly enhanced the mechanical properties of the matrix while also improving the interfacial transition zone (ITZ) between the fibers and the surrounding matrix. Despite the challenges of achieving uniformity in the manual coating process, the study underscores the potential of silica-based fiber surface treatment to significantly improve the structural performance of FRC and FRCM by enhancing bond strength and energy dissipation capacities.
Recent advances in 3D bioprinted neural models: A systematic review on the applications to drug discovery
(Advanced Drug Delivery Reviews, 2025) Orr, Amanda; Kalantarnia, Farnoosh; Nazir, Shama; Bolandi, Behzad; Alderson, Dominic; O'Grady, Kerrin; Hoorfar, Mina; Julian,Lisa M.; Willerth, Stephanie M.
The design of neural tissue models with architectural and biochemical relevance to native tissues opens the way for the fundamental study and development of therapies for many disorders with limited treatment options. Here, we systematically review the most recent literature on 3D bioprinted neural models, including their potential for use in drug screening. Neural tissues that model the central nervous system (CNS) from the relevant literature are reviewed with comprehensive summaries of each study, and discussion of the model types, bioinks and additives, cell types used, bioprinted construct shapes and culture time, and the characterization methods used. In this review, we accentuate the lack of standardization among characterization methods to analyze the functionality (including chemical, metabolic and other pathways) and mechanical relevance of the 3D bioprinted constructs, and discuss this as a critical area for future exploration. These gaps must be addressed for this technology to be applied for effective drug screening applications, despite its enormous potential for rapid and efficient drug screening. The future of biomimetic, 3D printed neural tissues is promising and evaluation of the in vivo relevance on multiple levels should be sought to adequately compare model performance and develop viable treatment options for neurodegenerative diseases, or other conditions that affect the CNS.
Vateritic otoliths in hatchery-reared Strait of Georgia coho salmon: Variation among stocks, hatcheries, and life stages
(Fisheries Research, 2025) Gaffney, Leigh P.; Quindazzi, Micah; Polard, Emma; Kraemer, Chloe; Walton, Lydia N.; Molder, Lydia N.; Greentree, Wesley L.; Duguid, Will; Bohlender, Nick; Juanes, Francis
Coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) populations have been declining, prompting large-scale hatchery-rearing programs to mitigate these losses. Despite these efforts, hatchery-reared coho salmon exhibit lower marine survival rates compared to their wild counterparts, potentially due to differences in rearing environments. One well-documented difference is the occurrence of abnormal (vateritic) sagittal otoliths, which occur at much higher rates in hatchery-reared salmon (50–80?%) compared to wild salmon (<10?%). Given the critical role of sagittal otoliths in inner-ear function, understanding the factors influencing vaterite occurrence is crucial. Our study aimed to quantify the proportion and percent coverage of vateritic sagittal otoliths in hatchery-reared coho salmon smolts and adults from eleven stocks across eight hatchery facilities and river systems around the Strait of Georgia, British Columbia, Canada, collected over two years. We also compared otoliths from smolts and adults originating from the same brood year to assess potential impacts on survival. Our results show that vaterite proportion and percent coverage vary significantly by hatchery facility, stock, and brood year. Smolts from the Coldwater River stock, reared under unique early rearing conditions, exhibited the lowest proportion of vateritic sagittal otoliths (29?% of fish had at least one vateritic otolith) compared to all other hatchery smolt and adult stocks (43–91?%). The proportion and percent coverage of vateritic otoliths did not differ significantly between outmigrating smolts and returning adults from the same brood year, suggesting that vateritic otoliths did not impact marine survival This research emphasizes the variability in vateritic otoliths across hatcheries and stocks, highlighting the need to evaluate hatchery rearing practices to better understand and mitigate the potential impacts of vateritic otoliths on the health and marine survival of hatchery-origin Pacific salmon.
The riddle of the sands: C02 emissions reduction and California's renewables portfolio
(Applied Energy, 2025) van Kooten, G. Cornelis
Development of nuclear energy in northern Alberta has been proposed as a means of reducing the environmental costs of oilsands extraction; rather than open-pit mining, steam from nuclear power plants would be used for in situ extraction of petroleum. Such development could be facilitated by the export of electricity to California, thereby facilitating achievement of the State's legislative target that 60 % of electricity come from renewable sources by 2030 and 100 % by 2045. Using a policy-oriented, grid allocation model and projections of future power requirements in California, this study determines whether there is indeed potential for Alberta to export carbon-free electricity to California to the benefit of both jurisdictions. We find that doing so could reduce California's CO2 emissions in the electricity sector by some 70 to 85 %. However, if California decided to rely more on in-house generation of nuclear power, the market available to Alberta would be constrained by the extent to which the State exploits nuclear capacity. It is also constrained by the extent to which the load profile can be altered and the ability to exploit wind and solar regimes that differ from those currently used to generate power.
The role of scavenging and early diagenesis in controlling hydrothermal fluxes into the ocean along the Endeavour segment of the Juan de Fuca ridge
(Chemical Geology, 2025) Beaupré-Olsen, Isabelle; Mihaly, Steve; Robutka, Hannah; Spence, Jody; Gillis, Kathryn M.; Coogan, Laurence A.
Mixing of high-temperature hydrothermal vent fluids with seawater leads to the precipitation of a large fraction of the non-conservative element load and scavenging of elements from seawater onto the particles formed. This substantially modifies hydrothermal fluxes into the ocean relative to the flux across the seafloor at vents. However, the particles formed in the plume are rarely in equilibrium within the uppermost sediments, and scavenged elements may be loosely bound to particle surfaces, meaning that the net flux from the ocean can be readily modified by processes operating during early diagenesis. Using bulk geochemistry, and progressive leaching experiments, we characterize sediments from around the Endeavour segment of the Juan de Fuca ridge to investigate scavenging and early diagenetic processes. Changes in bulk sediment composition with distance from the ridge (e.g., decreases in Fe/Ti) support a decreased hydrothermal input off-axis. Bulk-sediment and leachate data are interpreted as indicating substantial scavenging of elements such as P, V, Cr and REEs as previously suggested, with different elements scavenged with different efficiencies in different parts of the plume. Correlations of these elements with Fe in the HCl leachates, suggests their uptake is associated with Fe-oxyhydroxides. Water column scavenging is overprinted by fluxes associated with benthic scavenging for V and REE. In contrast, early diagenesis leads to complete loss of scavenged P back to the ocean. Leaching the samples with NaOH and acetic acid provides evidence for recrystallization of reactive (biogenic and hydrothermal) silica and CaCO3 during early diagenesis in all locations. The fraction of Fe and Mn leached by 1 M HCl in 1 h versus 24 h, and the amount leached in 24 h, vary systematically; these data can be explained by progressive recrystallization of hydrothermally-derived Fe and Mn minerals during early diagenesis. These early diagenetic reactions release almost all hydrothermally-derived Mn back into the ocean, while Fe remains largely fixed in the sediment. Large-scale loss of Co, Zn, Mo, Ag and Cd also occurs during early diagenesis, with some evidence As, Pb and U are also lost. In deeper, more reducing, sediments there is uptake of As, Mo, Ag, Cd and U, presumably via diffusion through the shallow oxic sediments. Such diagenetic processes mean that the net fluxes of elements into and out of the ocean associated with hydrothermal systems differ from those estimated from studies of either vent fluids or hydrothermal plumes.
Identification of antibodies induced by immunization with the syphilis vaccine candidate Tp0751
(Vaccine, 2025) Urselli, Francesca; Gomez, Alloysius; Gray, Matthew D.; Cameron, Caroline E.; Taylor, Justin J.
The continued and increasing prevalence of syphilis worldwide highlights the need for an effective syphilis vaccine to complement public health measures. Previous work demonstrated that immunization of the rabbit animal model with vaccine candidates derived from the T. pallidum endothelial cell adhesin Tp0751 could reduce dissemination of T. pallidum to lymph nodes. In those studies, a proportion of animals exhibited complete inhibition of treponemal dissemination and others exhibited partial or no inhibition of treponemal dissemination, consistent with results expected from an outbred animal model. In the current study we further characterized the Tp0751-specific antibody response in immunized animals that showed inhibition of T. pallidum dissemination. To do this, we generated Tp0751 tetramers to identify Tp0751-specific B cells before and after immunization. Using this approach, we found a robust expansion of Tp0751-specific B cells in the blood and spleens of immunized animals compared to unimmunized control animals. Ten antibodies from Tp0751-immunized rabbits were cloned and binding to specific structural regions of the Tp0751 protein was assessed using epitope mapping assays and structural modeling. Importantly, nine out of the ten antibodies cloned from Tp0751 tetramer-binding B cells were able to significantly inhibit T. pallidum attachment to human endothelial cells in vitro, including antibodies exhibiting weaker binding to Tp0751. Combined, our results provide a proof-of-principle that Tp0751-based subunit vaccines can stimulate strong B cell responses resulting in the production of antibodies able to inhibit T. pallidum attachment to endothelial cells.
Vibration performance of CLT and CLT-concrete composite floors supported by glulam beams under human activity in mass timber office buildings
(Engineering Structures, 2025) Malek, Sardar; Cheraghi-shirazi, Najmeh; Creagh, Ariel; Setiawan, Fendy; Parra, Roger; Khoshkbari, Parham
Timber floors are susceptible to vibration due to their low mass and bending stiffness. Utilizing mass timber products in long-span scenarios, such as in office buildings, makes vibration an important design driver for structural engineers. To gain insight on the vibration performance of mass timber and timber-composite floors in real mass timber buildings, a comprehensive testing campaign was conducted on two mass timber office buildings. The measured data were compared and discussed according to various standards and design guides at the end. Although some discrepancies between estimated parameters and measurements were noted, the floors reasonably meet their desired performance objectives for office buildings according to existing standards. The results presented in this paper not only demonstrate the effect of human weight and walking path on the floor's response, but also provide important data on mass timber floor system performance in furnished buildings, which is not otherwise available in the literature.
Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) detection for the identification of bacterial infections in clinical wound samples
(Talanta, 2025) Azimzadeh, Mostafa; Khashayar, Patricia; Mousazadeh, Marziyeh; Daneshpour, Maryam; Rostami, Mohammad; Goodlett, David R.; Manji, Karim; Fardindoost, Somayeh; Akbari, Mohsen; Hoorfar, Mina
Early detection of wound infections is critical for timely intervention and prevention of possible complications since prompt treatment can help lower pathogen spread and enhance faster healing. Early detection also helps reduce the risk of serious infections requiring extensive medical interventions or life-threatening diseases such as sepsis. Culture-based approaches currently used for bacterial identification have limited sensitivity and specificity. At the same time, they are time-consuming, resulting in delays in therapy and, therefore, having a negative impact on the treatment outcomes. Quantifying the volatile organic compounds (VOCs) released by bacteria residing in wounds is a promising, non-invasive option for detecting infections at early stages. This method allows for continuous monitoring without requiring invasive procedures, thereby reducing patient discomfort and the risk of further complications. Spectroscopy methods and sensors are the primary VOC detection and quantification approaches, but sensors are more rapid, cost-effective, non-invasive, and precise. This review highlights the significance of the early detection of wound infection to enable timely intervention and prevent complications, emphasizing the limitations of culture-based approaches. It also explores the potential of quantifying VOCs using different methods and discusses the correlation between their levels and the rate of bacterial infections in wounds. Additionally, the review evaluates current VOC-based monitoring methods for wound management, identifies gaps in the field, and advocates for further research to advance wound care and enhance patient outcomes.
Real-time air quality prediction using traffic videos and machine learning
(Transportation Research Part D, 2025) Deveer, Laura; Minet, Laura
Machine learning techniques are yielding better results than traditional statistical techniques to estimate traffic-related air pollutant (TRAP) concentrations. However, required data inputs, particularly complex traffic data, are costly and rarely collected in real-time. This study leverages real-time object detection techniques to accurately predict TRAP concentrations by extracting traffic variables solely from videos. Fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3) concentrations are recorded by low-cost sensors, with traffic data extracted using object detection and tracking algorithms. Extreme Gradient Boosting, random forest, and multilinear regression models are employed to predict concentrations across different predictor combinations. Our optimal models accurately predict PM2.5, NO2, and O3 concentrations with R2 values of 0.94, 0.95, and 0.92, respectively. This study demonstrates a cost-effective approach with high accuracies in predicting real-time TRAP using a low-cost and low-maintenance tool: a video camera. Cities could similarly track TRAP using traffic camera infrastructure without additional sensor deployment.
The use of vegetation in hydroelectric reservoir shoreline management: A global review of strategies and applications
(Ecological Engineering, 2025) Matthes, Myah; May, Micah; Nolet, Natasha; Shackelford, Nancy
Hydroelectric dams negatively impact reservoir shoreline vegetation, accelerating management issues such as erosion and sedimentation. Understanding the role of vegetation on reservoir shorelines is therefore increasingly relevant in its potential to benefit both shoreline ecosystems and hydroelectric management. We reviewed 103 peer-reviewed papers on the role of vegetation in reservoir management. Each paper was systematically examined to identify assessment strategies for shoreline vegetation and plant traits associated with high survival. We extended our search to include a targeted literature review of 17 grey literature reports from British Columbia (BC) Canada, a province with high hydroelectric power production and management concerns associated with reservoir erosion and dust emissions. We found that most peer-reviewed studies were observational, focusing on ecosystem change (55.3 %) and vegetation inventories (52.4 %) instead of experimental revegetation trials (15.5 %). Traits commonly linked to high survival were fast growth and short, annual life cycles, rhizomes, photosynthetic adaptability, and grass life forms. Functional traits related to the depth and extent of roots, and achieving high percent cover through rapid germination, growth and regeneration may be the most important factors in addressing erosion and sedimentation, making them strong candidates for future revegetation efforts. Most research was short-term and focused on North Temperate latitudes, highlighting the need for global studies on shoreline vegetation and plant traits. Our BC literature review included unpublished reports of successful revegetation efforts that can inform the peer-reviewed published literature. We advocate for publishing future management findings to support global practitioners as the demand for hydroelectric energy grows.
Electrifying end-use demands: A rise in capacity and flexibility requirements
(Energy, 2025) Knittel, Tamara; Lowry, Colton; McPherson, Madeleine; Wild, Peter; Rowe; Andrew
The electrification of end-uses where consumption patterns are linked to behavior, weather, and technology characteristics is expected to impact grid infrastructure in a variety of ways. One way to limit potential negative consequences of end-use electrification on grid infrastructure is through utilization of demand-side management strategies. Previous work has yet to address the simultaneous impact of electrifying building heating and cooling, and road transportation on capacity and the resulting flexibility requirements for the electrical grid. In this paper, two high-resolution models are combined to generate regional demand profiles for building heating, space cooling, passenger vehicles, and commercial road transportation. End-use energy demand profiles are generated for key sub-sectors, with 15-min resolution, simulating large-scale end-use electrification by 2050 in British Columbia, Canada. Results show that simultaneous electrification in the building and road transportation sectors increases capacity and flexibility requirements by 93 % and 320 %, respectively. A synergy of demand-side measures limits the increase in capacity and flexibility requirements to 74 % and 82 %, respectively. Temporal resolution of demand models is critical in the determination of flexibility requirements as maximum positive ramping rates increase by 520 % when changing from an hourly to a 15-min resolution.

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