The flow and variability of sea-ice in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago: modelling the past (1950-2004) and the future (2041-2060)
Date
2007-08-28T18:56:29Z
Authors
Sou, Theressa V.
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Abstract
Considering the recent losses observed in Arctic sea-ice and the anticipated
future warming due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions,
sea-ice retreat in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) is expected.
As most global climate models do not resolve the CAA region,
a fine-resolution regional model is developed to provide a sense of possible
changes in the CAA sea-ice. This ice-ocean coupled model is forced with
atmospheric data for two time-periods. Results from a historical run (1950-2004)are used to validate the model. The model does well in representing observed
sea-ice spatial and seasonal variability, but tends to underestimate summertime
ice cover. In the future run (2041-2060), wintertime ice concentrations change
little, but the summertime ice concentrations decrease by 45%. The ice
thickness also decreases, by 17% in the winter, and by 36% in summer.
Based on this study, a completely ice-free CAA is unlikely by the year 2050,
but the region could support some commercial shipping.
Description
Keywords
sea-ice, Canadian Arctic