The flow and variability of sea-ice in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago: modelling the past (1950-2004) and the future (2041-2060)

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dc.contributor.authorSou, Theressa V.
dc.contributor.supervisorFlato, Gregory M.
dc.contributor.supervisorWeaver, Andrew J.
dc.date.accessioned2007-08-28T18:56:29Z
dc.date.available2007-08-28T18:56:29Z
dc.date.copyright2007en_US
dc.date.issued2007-08-28T18:56:29Z
dc.degree.departmentSchool of Earth and Ocean Sciencesen_US
dc.degree.levelMaster of Science M.Sc.en_US
dc.description.abstractConsidering the recent losses observed in Arctic sea-ice and the anticipated future warming due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, sea-ice retreat in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) is expected. As most global climate models do not resolve the CAA region, a fine-resolution regional model is developed to provide a sense of possible changes in the CAA sea-ice. This ice-ocean coupled model is forced with atmospheric data for two time-periods. Results from a historical run (1950-2004)are used to validate the model. The model does well in representing observed sea-ice spatial and seasonal variability, but tends to underestimate summertime ice cover. In the future run (2041-2060), wintertime ice concentrations change little, but the summertime ice concentrations decrease by 45%. The ice thickness also decreases, by 17% in the winter, and by 36% in summer. Based on this study, a completely ice-free CAA is unlikely by the year 2050, but the region could support some commercial shipping.en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1828/208
dc.languageEnglisheng
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.rightsAvailable to the World Wide Weben_US
dc.subjectsea-iceen_US
dc.subjectCanadian Arcticen_US
dc.subject.lcshUVic Subject Index::Sciences and Engineering::Earth and Ocean Sciences::Physical geographyen_US
dc.titleThe flow and variability of sea-ice in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago: modelling the past (1950-2004) and the future (2041-2060)en_US
dc.typeThesisen_US

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