Greek labour migration to Germany, 1960-1974
Date
1976
Authors
Himaras, George
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Abstract
The causes and effects of Greek labour emigration to West Germany 1960-1974 are the subject of this thesis. It seems that the problem has suffered from a relative neglect in economic theory. In the literature the main emphasis has been on the effects of the immigration of labour rather than on the effects that emigrants have on the economy of the country that they leave. The difference between a permanent-settlement type of population migration and the 'new' short-run labour movement across national borders is emphasized in this study.
Three approaches have been used in dealing with the problem of emigration:
a) a 'technocratic approach' emphasizing the relationship between migration anti the employment issue in the economy,
b) a 'cost-benefits' approach, analyzing the pros and cons of migration,
c) a 'structural' approach, examining the impact of emigration in the general framework of economic development.
Several hypotheses have been suggested in the literature as important in explaining Greek emigration. The hypotheses specifically examined in this thesis are:
a) that both 'push' and 'pull' factors jointly influenced labour emigration from Greece. (The relative importance of the 'push' or 'pull' factors is also assessed.)
b) that wage differentials between Greece and Germany were significant in explaining migration.
c) that policy measures imposed by Germany were significant for Greek emigration to Germany.
d) that a lag existed in the decision-making process regarding migration, thus present migration was dependent on past migration.
A linear regression analysis is utilized to test these hypotheses. Various problems referring both to the reliability of the data and the limitations imposed by using this approach are discussed in Chapter III. The results achieved from the exercise should be considered indicative rather than definite. The following are some of the conclusions drawn from the exercise:
a) 'Push' ·and 'pull' factors were found to be equally significant for emigration to Germany.
b) Though wage differentials were found to have little significance in explaining emigration, a high correlation between the wage-ratio and the ratio of unemployed as indicated by the data makes it difficult for us to ignore the wage variable entirely.
c) Policy measures were found to be insignificant.
d) It was found that past emigration is significant in explaining present migration.
Two recent models of migration by J.E. Meade and G. Myrdal were considered. It was indicated that the Myrdal model can better explain the case of Greek emigration to Germany in terms of appropriateness of assumptions and validity of predictions.
In assessing the effects of emigration, two approaches have been followed:
a) a 'cost-benefits' approach, juxtaposing the positive and negative effects of emigration.
b} a 'strategic variables' approach, examining the impact of emigration on certain variables deemed important for the economic development of the country.
The second approach was chosen. In Chapter V the impact of emigration on the following factors is briefly examined:
a) the balance of payments of Greece,
b) the level of employment,
c) the composition of the Greek labour force,
d) the evolution of the population,
e) the profitability of Greek industry.
It seems that emigration relieved balance of payments shortages, and also cased the unemployment problem in Greece to some extent. However, emigrants' remittances may have increased levels of consumption and imports, rather than productive investment.
Furthermore, emigration depleted the labour force and creat2d shortages in some sectors of the economy. There are indications that the proportion of skilled workers m5.grating was high. When the stock of skilled labour is already small the loss of skilled manpower is a very serious obstacle to development.
In Greece, the highly selective character of emigration has changed the age, sex, and occupational structure of the labour force in a negative way. Since young people provided the bulk of the emigrants, the age structure of the Greek population has deteriorated badly.
Population growth rates have fallen to a very low level, and the related imposition of wage equalization may destroy Greek industry.
In conclusion, the positive effects of emigration on the balance of payments of a country and the relief that it may offer from unemployment do not necessarily lead to long-term economic development. Instead, they may impede it.