Propagating Particle Tracking Uncertainty Defined by Fuzzy Numbers in Spatially Variable Velocity Fields

dc.contributor.authorBlanken, Hauke
dc.contributor.authorValeo, Caterina
dc.contributor.authorHannah, Charles G.
dc.contributor.authorKhan, Usman T.
dc.date.accessioned2023-10-15T13:25:02Z
dc.date.available2023-10-15T13:25:02Z
dc.date.copyright2023en_US
dc.date.issued2023
dc.description.abstractAccurate prediction of the trajectories of material drifting on the ocean surface is critical for risk assessment and responses to environmental emergencies. Prediction of these trajectories is subject to uncertainty arising from a number of sources, with a primary source being uncertainty in the modelled ocean surface currents and winds used as input to the trajectory model. This article presents a fuzzy number-based algorithm for propagating uncertainty through a particle tracking scheme in a time- and space-varying velocity field. The performance of the algorithm was tested by applying it to idealized, analytical velocity fields and scoring the results against the analytical solution. Both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty were considered and combined using a fractional Brownian motion model for temporal autocorrelation of the uncertainty. In the evaluation of the algorithm, sensitivity was quantified with respect to parameters such as timestep size, resolution of the forcing velocity field, spatial and temporal gradients in the forcing, and resolution of the applied uncertainty. Parameter values optimizing uncertainty representation and computational cost were identified. The applied uncertainty was found to evolve in agreement with classical relative dispersion relationships.en_US
dc.description.reviewstatusRevieweden_US
dc.description.scholarlevelFacultyen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipThis work was made possible through the oceanography sub-initiative of the Government of Canada’s Oceans Protection Plan.en_US
dc.identifier.citationBlanken, H., Valeo, C., Hannah, C. G., & Khan, U. T. (2023). Propagating Particle Tracking Uncertainty Defined by Fuzzy Numbers in Spatially Variable Velocity Fields. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 11(9), 1752. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse11091752en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.3390/jmse11091752
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1828/15516
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherJournal of Marine Science and Engineeringen_US
dc.subjectuncertaintyen_US
dc.subjectfuzzy numbersen_US
dc.subjectparticle trackingen_US
dc.titlePropagating Particle Tracking Uncertainty Defined by Fuzzy Numbers in Spatially Variable Velocity Fieldsen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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