Constraining the entire Earth system projections for more reliable climate change adaptation planning

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dc.contributor.authorLi, Chao
dc.contributor.authorZwiers, Francis W.
dc.contributor.authorZhang, Xuebin
dc.contributor.authorFischer, Erich M.
dc.contributor.authorDu, Fujun
dc.contributor.authorLiu, Jieyu
dc.contributor.authorWang, Jianyu
dc.contributor.authorLiang, Yongxiao
dc.contributor.authorLi, Tong
dc.contributor.authorYuan, Lina
dc.date.accessioned2025-09-24T19:15:42Z
dc.date.available2025-09-24T19:15:42Z
dc.date.issued2025
dc.descriptionThis work was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2020YFA0608901) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42075026).
dc.description.abstractThe warming climate is creating increased levels of climate risk because of changes to the hazards to which human and natural systems are exposed. Projections of how those hazards will change are affected by uncertainties in the climate sensitivity of climate models, among other factors. While the level-of-global-warming approach can circumvent model climate sensitivity uncertainties in some applications, practitioners faced with specific adaptation responsibilities often find such projections difficult to use because they generally require time-oriented information. Earth system projections following specified emissions scenarios can, however, be constrained by applying the level-of-global-warming approach to observationally constrained warming projections to yield more reliable time-oriented projections for adaption planning and implementation. This approach also allows individual groups to produce consistent and comparable assessments of multifaceted climate impacts and causal mechanisms, thereby benefiting climate assessments at national and international levels that provide the science basis for adaptation action.
dc.description.reviewstatusReviewed
dc.description.scholarlevelFaculty
dc.identifier.citationLi, C., Zwiers, F. W., Zhang, X, Fischer, E. M., Du, F, Liu, J., Wang, J., Liang, Y., & Yuan, L. (2025). Constraining the entire Earth system projections for more reliable climate change adaptation planning. Science Advances, 11(9). https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adr5346
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2025.2478829
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1828/22798
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherScience Advances
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
dc.subjectUN SDG 13: Climate Action
dc.subject#journal article
dc.subjectPacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC)
dc.titleConstraining the entire Earth system projections for more reliable climate change adaptation planning
dc.typeArticle

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