Notable shifts beyond pre-industrial streamflow and soil moisture conditions transgress the planetary boundary for freshwater change

Simple item page
dc.contributor.authorPorkka, Miina
dc.contributor.authorVirkki, Vili
dc.contributor.authorWang-Erlandsson, Lan
dc.contributor.authorGerten, Dieter
dc.contributor.authorGleeson, Tom
dc.contributor.authorMohan, Chinchu
dc.contributor.authorFetzer, Ingo
dc.contributor.authorJaramillo, Fernando
dc.contributor.authorStaal, Arie
dc.contributor.authorte Wierik, Sofie
dc.contributor.authorTobian, Arne
dc.contributor.authorvan der Ent, Ruud
dc.contributor.authorDöll, Petra
dc.contributor.authorFlörke, Martina
dc.contributor.authorGosling, Simon N.
dc.contributor.authorHanasaki, Naota
dc.contributor.authorSatoh, Yusuke
dc.contributor.authorMüller Schmied, Hannes
dc.contributor.authorWanders, Niko
dc.contributor.authorFamiglietti, James S.
dc.contributor.authorRockström, Johan
dc.contributor.authorKummu, Matti
dc.date.accessioned2025-09-22T16:20:50Z
dc.date.available2025-09-22T16:20:50Z
dc.date.issued2024
dc.description.abstractHuman actions compromise the many life-supporting functions provided by the freshwater cycle. Yet, scientific understanding of anthropogenic freshwater change and its long-term evolution is limited. Here, using a multi-model ensemble of global hydrological models, we estimate how, over a 145-year industrial period (1861–2005), streamflow and soil moisture have deviated from pre-industrial baseline conditions (defined by 5th–95th percentiles, at 0.5° grid level and monthly timestep over 1661–1860). Comparing the two periods, we find an increased frequency of local deviations on ~45% of land area, mainly in regions under heavy direct or indirect human pressures. To estimate humanity’s aggregate impact on these two important elements of the freshwater cycle, we present the evolution of deviation occurrence at regional to global scales. Annually, local streamflow and soil moisture deviations now occur on 18.2% and 15.8% of global land area, respectively, which is 8.0 and 4.7 percentage points beyond the ~3 percentage point wide pre-industrial variability envelope. Our results signify a substantial shift from pre-industrial streamflow and soil moisture reference conditions to persistently increasing change. This indicates a transgression of the new planetary boundary for freshwater change, which is defined and quantified using our approach, calling for urgent actions to reduce human disturbance of the freshwater cycle.
dc.description.reviewstatusReviewed
dc.description.scholarlevelFaculty
dc.description.sponsorshipOpen Access funding provided by Aalto University.
dc.identifier.citationPorkka, M., Virkki, V., Wang-Erlandsson, L. et al. (2024). Notable shifts beyond pre-industrial streamflow and soil moisture conditions transgress the planetary boundary for freshwater change. Nature Water 2, 262–273. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-024-00208-7
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-024-00208-7
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1828/22782
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherNature Water
dc.rightsCC BY 4.0
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectenvironmental sciences
dc.subjecthydrology
dc.subjectsustainability
dc.subject.departmentSchool of Earth and Ocean Sciences
dc.subject.departmentDepartment of Civil Engineering
dc.titleNotable shifts beyond pre-industrial streamflow and soil moisture conditions transgress the planetary boundary for freshwater change
dc.typeArticle

Files

Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
porkka_miina_natWater_2024.pdf
Size:
6.7 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Download

Collections

Faculty and Staff Publications
 
University of Victoria Libraries

We acknowledge and respect the Lək̓ʷəŋən (Songhees and Esquimalt) Peoples on whose territory the university stands, and the Lək̓ʷəŋən and W̱SÁNEĆ Peoples whose historical relationships with the land continue to this day.