Global water cycle shifts far beyond pre-industrial conditions – planetary boundary for freshwater change transgressed

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dc.contributor.authorPorkka, Miina
dc.contributor.authorVirkki, Vili
dc.contributor.authorWang-Erlandsson, Lan
dc.contributor.authorGerten, Dieter
dc.contributor.authorGleeson, Tom
dc.contributor.authorMohan, Chinchu
dc.contributor.authorFetzer, Ingo
dc.contributor.authorJaramillo, Fernando
dc.contributor.authorStaal, Arie
dc.contributor.authorWierik, Sofie te
dc.contributor.authorTobian, Arne
dc.contributor.authorEnt, Ruud van der
dc.contributor.authorDöll, Petra
dc.contributor.authorFlörke, Martina
dc.contributor.authorGosling, Simon
dc.contributor.authorHanasaki, Naota
dc.contributor.authorSatoh, Yusuke
dc.contributor.authorSchmied, Hannes Müller
dc.contributor.authorWanders, Niko
dc.contributor.authorRockstrom, Johan
dc.contributor.authorKummu, Matti
dc.date.accessioned2025-09-22T16:20:50Z
dc.date.available2025-09-22T16:20:50Z
dc.date.issued2022
dc.description.abstractHuman actions compromise the many life-supporting functions provided by the freshwater cycle. Yet, scientific understanding of anthropogenic freshwater change and its long-term evolution is limited. Using a multi-model ensemble of global hydrological models, we estimate how, over a 145-year industrial period, streamflow and soil moisture have deviated from pre-industrial baseline conditions (defined by 5th–95th percentiles, at 0.5° grid level and monthly time step). We find increased frequency of local deviations on ~45% of land area, mainly in regions under heavy direct or indirect human pressures. To estimate humanity’s aggregate impact on the freshwater cycle, we present the evolution of deviation occurrence at regional to global scales. Currently, local streamflow and soil moisture deviations occur on 18.2% and 15.8% of global land area, respectively, which is 8.0 and 4.7 percentage points beyond the ~3 percentage point wide pre-industrial variability envelope. Finally, we discuss applying our approach to define a planetary boundary for freshwater change. Our results indicate a substantial shift from stable pre-industrial streamflow and soil moisture conditions to persistently increasing change and a transgression of the freshwater change planetary boundary, calling for urgent actions to reduce human disturbance of the freshwater cycle.
dc.description.reviewstatusUnreviewed
dc.description.scholarlevelFaculty
dc.description.sponsorshipEuropean Research Council under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant no. 819202) (MP, MK) Erling - Persson Family Foundation (MP) Aalto University School of Engineering Doctoral Programme (VV) European Research Council through the “Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene” project (grant no. ERC - 2016 - ADG 743080) (LWE, IF, AT, JR) IKEA Foundation (LWE) Formas - A Swedish Research Council for Sustainable Development (grant no. 2022 - 02089) (LWE) Academy of Finland - funded project WATVUL (grant no. 317320) (MK) The Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO), project number 016.Veni.181.015 (RvdE)
dc.identifier.citationPorkka, M., Virkki, V., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Gerten, D., Gleeson, T., Mohan, C., Fetzer, I., Jaramillo, F., Staal, A., Wierik, S. T., Tobian, A., Van Der Ent, R., Döll, P., Flörke, M., Gosling, S., Hanasaki, N., Satoh, Y., Schmied, H. M., Wanders, N., . . . Kummu, M. (2022). Global water cycle shifts far beyond pre-industrial conditions – planetary boundary for freshwater change transgressed. EarthArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31223/x5bp8f
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.31223/X5BP8F
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1828/22783
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherEarthArXiv
dc.rightsCC BY 4.0
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjecthydrology
dc.subject.departmentSchool of Earth and Ocean Sciences
dc.subject.departmentDepartment of Civil Engineering
dc.titleGlobal water cycle shifts far beyond pre-industrial conditions – planetary boundary for freshwater change transgressed
dc.typePreprint

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