Human influence on Canadian temperatures

dc.contributor.authorWan, Hui
dc.contributor.authorZhang, Xuebin
dc.contributor.authorZwiers, Francis
dc.date.accessioned2020-12-02T20:22:58Z
dc.date.available2020-12-02T20:22:58Z
dc.date.copyright2019en_US
dc.date.issued2019
dc.description.abstractCanada has experienced some of the most rapid warming on Earth over the past few decades with a warming rate about twice that of the global mean temperature since 1948. Long-term warming is observed in Canada’s annual, winter and summer mean temperatures, and in the annual coldest and hottest daytime and nighttime temperatures. The causes of these changes are assessed by comparing observed changes with climate model simulated responses to anthropogenic and natural (solar and volcanic) external forcings. Most of the observed warming of 1.7 °C increase in annual mean temperature during 1948–2012 [90% confidence interval (1.1°, 2.2 °C)] can only be explained by external forcing on the climate system, with anthropogenic influence being the dominant factor. It is estimated that anthropogenic forcing has contributed 1.0 °C (0.6°, 1.5 °C) and natural external forcing has contributed 0.2 °C (0.1°, 0.3 °C) to the observed warming. Up to 0.5 °C of the observed warming trend may be associated with low frequency variability of the climate such as that represented by the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic oscillation (NAO). Overall, the influence of both anthropogenic and natural external forcing is clearly evident in Canada-wide mean and extreme temperatures, and can also be detected regionally over much of the country.en_US
dc.description.reviewstatusRevieweden_US
dc.description.scholarlevelFacultyen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipWe acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP the U.S. Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. We thank Chao Li, Elizabeth Bush and Emma Watson and three reviewers for their comments that have helped to improve the manuscript.en_US
dc.identifier.citationWan, H., Zhang, X., & Zwiers, F. (2019). Human influence on Canadian temperatures. Climate Dynamics, 52. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4145-zen_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4145-z
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1828/12433
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherClimate Dynamicsen_US
dc.titleHuman influence on Canadian temperaturesen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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