A dynamical climate model–driven hydrologic prediction system for the Fraser River, Canada
Date
2015
Authors
Shrestha, Rajesh R.
Schnorbus, Markus A.
Cannon, Alex J.
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Journal of Hydrometeorology
Abstract
Recent improvements in forecast skill of the climate system by dynamical climate models could lead to improvements in seasonal streamflow predictions. This study evaluates the hydrologic prediction skill of a dynamical climate model–driven hydrologic prediction system (CM-HPS), based on an ensemble of statistically downscaled outputs from the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS). For comparison, historical and future climate traces–driven ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) was employed. The Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC) hydrologic model setup for the Fraser River basin, British Columbia, Canada, was used as a test bed for the two systems. In both cases, results revealed limited precipitation prediction skill. For streamflow prediction, the ESP approach has very limited or no correlation skill beyond the months influenced by initial hydrologic conditions, while the CM-HPS has moderately better correlation skill, attributable to the enhanced temperature prediction skill that results from CanSIPS’s ability to predict El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its teleconnections. The root-mean-square error, bias, and categorical skills for the two methods are mostly similar. Hydrologic modeling uncertainty also affects the prediction skill, and in some cases prediction skill is constrained by hydrologic model skill. Overall, the CM-HPS shows potential for seasonal streamflow prediction, and further enhancements in climate models could potentially to lead to more skillful hydrologic predictions.
Description
Keywords
UN SDG 13: Climate Action, #journal article, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC)
Citation
Shrestha, R. R., Schnorbus, M. A., & Cannon, A. J. (2015). A dynamical climate model–driven hydrologic prediction system for the Fraser River, Canada. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 16(3), 1273–1292. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0167.1