A dynamical climate model–driven hydrologic prediction system for the Fraser River, Canada

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dc.contributor.authorShrestha, Rajesh R.
dc.contributor.authorSchnorbus, Markus A.
dc.contributor.authorCannon, Alex J.
dc.date.accessioned2025-04-10T20:27:24Z
dc.date.available2025-04-10T20:27:24Z
dc.date.issued2015
dc.description.abstractRecent improvements in forecast skill of the climate system by dynamical climate models could lead to improvements in seasonal streamflow predictions. This study evaluates the hydrologic prediction skill of a dynamical climate model–driven hydrologic prediction system (CM-HPS), based on an ensemble of statistically downscaled outputs from the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS). For comparison, historical and future climate traces–driven ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) was employed. The Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC) hydrologic model setup for the Fraser River basin, British Columbia, Canada, was used as a test bed for the two systems. In both cases, results revealed limited precipitation prediction skill. For streamflow prediction, the ESP approach has very limited or no correlation skill beyond the months influenced by initial hydrologic conditions, while the CM-HPS has moderately better correlation skill, attributable to the enhanced temperature prediction skill that results from CanSIPS’s ability to predict El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its teleconnections. The root-mean-square error, bias, and categorical skills for the two methods are mostly similar. Hydrologic modeling uncertainty also affects the prediction skill, and in some cases prediction skill is constrained by hydrologic model skill. Overall, the CM-HPS shows potential for seasonal streamflow prediction, and further enhancements in climate models could potentially to lead to more skillful hydrologic predictions.
dc.description.reviewstatusReviewed
dc.description.scholarlevelFaculty
dc.description.sponsorshipFunding for this project was provided by a Grants and Contribution Agreement with the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) of Environment Canada.
dc.identifier.citationShrestha, R. R., Schnorbus, M. A., & Cannon, A. J. (2015). A dynamical climate model–driven hydrologic prediction system for the Fraser River, Canada. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 16(3), 1273–1292. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0167.1
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0167.1
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1828/21759
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherJournal of Hydrometeorology
dc.subjectUN SDG 13: Climate Action
dc.subject#journal article
dc.subjectPacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC)
dc.titleA dynamical climate model–driven hydrologic prediction system for the Fraser River, Canada
dc.typeArticle

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