Observed changes in Canada's snowfall as inferred from precipitation and daily mean temperatures
Date
2026
Authors
Qian, Budong
Wang, Xiaolan
Zwiers, Francis W.
Feng, Yang
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Atmosphere-Ocean
Abstract
Limited long-term snowfall observations make it difficult to document how snowfall is changing across Canada. Proxy snowfall measures derived from more plentiful temperature and precipitation may therefore be helpful. We consider simple partitioning of daily precipitation into rainfall and snowfall based on whether temperature is above or below either 0°C or a station specific threshold. Using daily mean temperature and the fixed 0°C threshold resulted in more accurate estimates of annual and seasonal snow-day number and water equivalent snowfall amount than using daily maximum or daily minimum temperature. Using station-specific thresholds further improved estimation accuracy. Trends estimated from these proxy snowfall indices well match those estimated from observed snowfall data for periods and locations when both are available. The median annual proxy snowfall amount in Canada derived from homogenized daily precipitation and temperature data decreased 2.5% per decade over 1949–2023 south of 60°N and increased 0.5% per decade north of 60°N. Seasonally, annual proxy snowfall amount has changed most rapidly in winter, declining 2.6% per decade in southern Canada and increasing 3.6% per decade in northern Canada. This simple approach improves prospects for the continuation of long-term snowfall monitoring in Canada by exploiting long-term daily precipitation and temperature data.
Description
Keywords
UN SDG 13: Climate Action, #journal article, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC), climate change, precipitation partitioning, empirical methods, snowfall indices, long-term trends
Citation
Qian, B., Wang, X. L., Zwiers, F. W., & Feng, Y. (2026). Observed changes in Canada’s snowfall as inferred from precipitation and daily mean temperatures. Atmosphere-Ocean, 64(2), 132–146. https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2025.2586566