Changes in surface water dynamics across northwestern Canada are influenced by wildfire and permafrost thaw

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dc.contributor.authorTavers-Smith, H
dc.contributor.authorLantz, Trevor C.
dc.contributor.authorFraser, R H
dc.contributor.authorKokelj, S V
dc.date.accessioned2023-03-30T20:46:03Z
dc.date.available2023-03-30T20:46:03Z
dc.date.copyright2022en_US
dc.date.issued2022-10-25
dc.description.abstractThe abundance and distribution of surface water at high latitudes is shifting rapidly in response to both climate change and permafrost thaw. In particular, the expansion and drainage of lakes and ponds is widespread but spatially variable, and more research is needed to understand factors driving these processes. In this study we used medium resolution (30 m) remote sensing data to analyse changes in lake area in permafrost-rich lowland regions across northwestern Canada. First, we used the Global Surface Water Dataset developed by the GLAD research group to map the absolute area of different land–water transitions across a 1.4 million km2 study domain. Next, we selected six regional study areas representing a range of climatic, geologic and hydrologic conditions. Within these regional study areas, we used the Landsat satellite archive to map annual trends in the area of 27 755 lakes between 1985 and 2020. We trained a random forests model to classify lakes exhibiting significant increasing or decreasing trends in area, and assessed the relative importance of climate, disturbance and environmental variables in determining the direction of change. Our analysis shows that significant increases in lake area were 5.6 times more frequent than decreases during the study period. Wildfire and ground ice abundance were the most important predictors of the direction of change. Greater ground ice content was associated with regions that experienced increases in lake area, while wildfire was associated with regions that experienced decreases in lake area. The effects of climate, including trends in mean annual temperature and total annual precipitation were smaller than disturbance and environmental factors, indicating that climate has likely had indirect effects on lake area changes over our period of study.en_US
dc.description.reviewstatusRevieweden_US
dc.description.scholarlevelFacultyen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipThis research was funded by ArcticNet and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Council of Canada through a Discovery Grant (06,210-2018) to Trevor Lantz and a Canada Graduate Scholarship Award to Hana Travers-Smith. We also acknowledge funds and support from the University of Victoria, the Garfield Weston Foundation, the Northern Science Training Program, and the Polar Continental Shelf Project.en_US
dc.identifier.citationTravers-Smith, H., Lantz, T. C., Fraser, R. H., & Kokelj, S. V. (2022). Changes in surface water dynamics across northwestern Canada are influenced by wildfire and permafrost thaw. Environmental Research Letters, 17(11), 114021. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac97f7en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac97f7
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1828/14928
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherEnvironmental Research Lettersen_US
dc.subjectsurface water
dc.subjectArctic
dc.subjectnorthwestern Canada
dc.subjectpermafrost
dc.subjectwildfire
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.subject.departmentSchool of Environmental Studies
dc.titleChanges in surface water dynamics across northwestern Canada are influenced by wildfire and permafrost thawen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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