Model-Based Projections and Uncertainties of Near-Surface Wind Climate in Western Canada

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dc.contributor.authorDaines, Jeffrey T.
dc.contributor.authorMonahan, Adam H.
dc.contributor.authorCurry, Charles L.
dc.date.accessioned2019-09-26T12:10:29Z
dc.date.available2019-09-26T12:10:29Z
dc.date.copyright2016en_US
dc.date.issued2016
dc.description.abstractNear-surface wind is important in forestry, agriculture, air pollution, building energy use, and wind power generation. In western Canada it presently plays a minor role in power generation, but ongoing reductions in the cost of wind power infrastructure and the increasing costs of conventional power generation (including environmental costs) motivate the assessment of the projected future wind climate and uncertainties in this projection. Multiple realizations of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) at 45-km resolution were driven by two global climate models over the periods 1971–2000 (using historical greenhouse gas concentrations) and 2031–60 (using the SRES-A2 concentration scenario). Hourly wind speeds from 30 stations were analyzed over 1971–2000 and used to calibrate downscaled ensembles of projected wind speed distributions over 2031–60. At most station locations modest increases in mean wind speed were found for a majority of the projections, but with an ensemble spread of the same order of magnitude as the increases. Relative changes in mean wind speeds at station locations were found to be insensitive to the station observations and calibration technique. In view of this result, projected relative changes in future wind climate over the entire CRCM domain were estimated using uncalibrated pairs of past-period and future-period wind speed distributions. The relative changes are robust, in the sense that their ensemble mean relative change is greater than their standard deviation, but are not very substantial, in the sense that their ensemble mean change is generally less than the standard deviation of their annual means.en_US
dc.description.reviewstatusRevieweden_US
dc.description.scholarlevelFacultyen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipPartial funding was provided by the Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions via a graduate fellowship to JD. CRCM simulations were conducted by the Ouranos Consortium and the University of Victoria as part of the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) Collaborative Research and Development project, “Dynamical Downscaling of Western and Eastern Canadian Hydroclimate” (CRDPJ 403886-10), which provided funding to CC. AM acknowledges support from NSERC.en_US
dc.identifier.citationDaines, J.T., Monahan, A.H. & Curry, C.L. (2016). Stochastic Parameterization of Subgrid-Scale Velocity Enhancement of Sea Surface Fluxes. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 55(10), 2229-2245. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMCD- 16-0091.1en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-16-0091.1
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1828/11185
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherJournal of Applied Meteorology and Climatologyen_US
dc.subjectWinden_US
dc.subjectClimate changeen_US
dc.subjectClimate modelsen_US
dc.subjectEnsemblesen_US
dc.subjectModel comparisonen_US
dc.subjectRegional modelsen_US
dc.titleModel-Based Projections and Uncertainties of Near-Surface Wind Climate in Western Canadaen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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