Tundra shrub expansion in a warming climate and the influence of data type on models of habitat suitability

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dc.contributor.authorSeider, Jordan H.
dc.contributor.authorLantz, Trevor C.
dc.contributor.authorBone, Christopher
dc.date.accessioned2025-09-11T21:12:30Z
dc.date.available2025-09-11T21:12:30Z
dc.date.issued2022
dc.description.abstractWarming across the low Arctic is increasing tundra vegetation productivity and facilitating the expansion of upright shrubs. We modeled the effects of warming on habitat suitability in green alder, dwarf birch, Labrador tea, bog bilberry, and lingonberry and assessed the influence of data type (true absence or pseudo-absence) on species distribution models (SDMs). We generated SDMs using the two absence data types under current (1970–2000) and future (2061–2080) climate projections. Our results show that warming leads to range expansion of all shrubs, though responses vary in magnitude and extent, with mean increases in suitability ranging from 0.080 (Labrador tea) to 0.369 (lingonberry) with true absences. Differences in driving variables and suitability projections suggest that physiological and ecological variability between species mediate responses to warming. Between data types, we observed inconsistencies in model performance, suitability projections, and variable importance. Bog bilberry and lingonberry exhibited larger differences in suitability (0.201 and 0.288, respectively), whereas alder showed similar responses (difference of 0.01). These results are important to consider when assessing changes in habitat suitability or identifying environmental or climatic determinants of species’ distributions. We suggest further development of open data repositories, facilitating access to true absence data to support conservation and land use planning.
dc.description.reviewstatusReviewed
dc.description.scholarlevelFaculty
dc.description.sponsorshipFunding for this research was provided by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (Discovery Grant 06210-2018 to TCL and a Canada Graduate Scholarship Award to JHS), the Northern Scientific Training Program, the Polar Continental Shelf Program, the Aurora Research Institute, and the University of Victoria.
dc.identifier.citationSeider, J. H., Lantz, T. C., & Bone, C. (2022). Tundra shrub expansion in a warming climate and the influence of data type on models of habitat suitability. Arctic Antarctic and Alpine Research, 54(1), 488–506. https://doi.org/10.1080/15230430.2022.2121243
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1080/15230430.2022.2121243
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1828/22750
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherArctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research
dc.rightsCC BY 4.0
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.subjectpseudo-absence
dc.subjectshrubs
dc.subjectspecies distribution modeling
dc.subjecttundra
dc.subject.departmentSchool of Environmental Studies
dc.subject.departmentDepartment of Geography
dc.titleTundra shrub expansion in a warming climate and the influence of data type on models of habitat suitability
dc.typeArticle

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